The fear of FC Bayern is back. The record champions started the new season with an almost uncanny dominance. On Saturday evening, the reigning champions Bayer Leverkusen also had to face the new Bayern in the top game of the Bundesliga match day.
Xabi Alonso’s team managed to get a draw in the end. However, Leverkusen didn’t really have much to offer against Munich. With almost 70 percent ball possession, a pass rate of 90 percent and 18 to three shots on goal, it was – at least on paper – a very clear affair.
In the end, Vincent Kompany’s team failed mainly because they were able to exploit their own chances – and there was also a bit of bad luck. Leverkusen’s opening goal came from a corner caused by Aleksander Pavlovic with an unfortunate back pass. Serge Gnabry, on the other hand, failed to hit both the post and the crossbar in the second half. Bayern’s many other offensive efforts were also unsuccessful. Nevertheless, every spectator must have seen the security and superiority that this team exudes just a few match days after Kompany’s debut.
Alonso was also impressed by his opponent afterwards. “They give it their all – with the ball and against the ball. Their energy is great and their mentality is good. It was very tough today. We can be happy and satisfied with a point,” said the Spaniard to the press after the game.
But what has Kompany actually changed? What does the Belgian do differently than his predecessor Thomas Tuchel?
First, here are the soft factors. As Alonso already indicated in his statement, the mood and energy of the record champions seems to be different. Thomas Müller also recently confirmed: It’s fun to play football again. How much of this can be attributed to Kompany is difficult to quantify. After all, the last title that didn’t appear may have awakened a new mentality. But initial reports from the Bayern camp suggest that Kompany has had a decisive influence on the mood in the team. With measures such as playing music frequently during training and his overall relaxed, yet determined manner, the 38-year-old has brought the fun back into football.
However, there are also tangible factors. Kompany has made some tactical adjustments. The new Bayern are characterized above all by a high defensive line and offensive pressing. The Belgian bravely defends man-to-man all over the pitch. An approach that has paid off so far. Bayern seem more stable, the high pressing seems to suit the player. Under Tuchel, the defense in particular often seemed insecure. This feeling has now disappeared.
The tactical approach of the former City defender can also be seen statistically. Ball possession under Kompany currently averages 64 percent. Although Tuchel’s Bayern were also first in this statistic, their dominance was less clear at 59 percent. Against Leverkusen, a team that also wants to appear dominant, Bayern ultimately played more than twice as many passes. This shows that even against strong opponents, Bayern are currently managing to bring their style of play to the pitch.
The excellent pass rate of 91 percent on average also speaks for greater dominance. Last season this was just under 90 percent. That may sound like a small change, but the entire Bundesliga varied within 15 percentage points last season. Even small changes can have a big impact.
Kompany-Bayern also lead far more duels in the front and middle third of the pitch. According to the statistics website, Bayen lead under Kompany per 90 minutes FBref 3.4 duels in the offensive third, under Tuchel this was exactly three fewer duels per 90 minutes. In the middle third it is 6.6/90min, significantly more than last year (5.62/90min). In the defensive third, there were significantly more under Tuchel. The Munich team only had 5.2 duels under Kompany, compared to 6.68 under his predecessor.
Bayern are doing a lot better this season at keeping their opponents away from their own goal. This is also proven by the xGa statistics. Bayern are allowing significantly fewer expected goals than last season. On average, the statistics of expected goals against Bayern, the so-called xGa value (‘expected goals against’), show a value of 0.66 per game this season. Last season this value was 0.94. In addition, the overall value of 3.3 for expected goals conceded in the five Bundesliga games so far comes primarily from the first games against VfL Wolfsburg (1.9 xGa) and SC Freiburg (1.0 xGa). Since then, the Kompany team has found its way around better and better. Most recently, the values against Holstein Kiel (0.3), Werder Bremen (0.0) and Leverkusen (0.1) were all extremely low. Bayern hardly allowed any dangerous chances in these games.
If Bayern manage to keep up these statistics, it will be extremely difficult to beat Munich. The impressive dominance with which the Kompany team is currently playing has already drawn the first comparisons to Guardiola.
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