NASA is preparing for a threat that could change the fate of our planet: an asteroid called Apophis, measuring 350 meters in diameter, is heading toward Earth. Scientists estimate that the encounter will happen in five years, in 2029, raising serious concerns about what could happen if an impact were to occur.
A harbinger of chaos and destruction?
The name of this asteroid was not chosen by chance. Apophis, in Egyptian mythology, represents chaos and darkness, and an impact of this size could not have a more appropriate meaning. But what would actually happen if Apophis hit the Earth? Scientists estimate that the energy released would be equivalent to 900 megatons of TNT, a devastating force, especially when compared to the most powerful nuclear bomb ever exploded, which reached 50 megatons.
The consequences of such a violent impact would be catastrophic, but the extent of the destruction would depend on where it hit. If Apophis were to hit land, it would create a death zone extending for a radius of 250 km. Outside this area, there would be a good chance of survival, but those inside the impact zone would have no escape. If the asteroid were to hit the ocean, however, enormous tsunamis more than 100 meters high would devastate the nearby coasts.
Apophis: A New Mass Extinction?
The question many are asking is whether Apophis could cause a mass extinction event similar to the one that struck Earth 66 million years ago, wiping out the dinosaurs. Experts seem reassuring on this front: to cause a global extinction, the energy released by Apophis would have to be 100 times greater than currently estimated. However, uncertainty remains, and the threat cannot be completely ignored.
Apophis in 2029 and Beyond: What are the Real Chances of Impact?
Since its discovery in 2004, Apophis has raised concerns. Initially, the probability of an impact in 2029 was estimated at 2.7%. This was later revised, and we now know that the asteroid will pass close to Earth without impacting it in 2029. However, Apophis will return several more times: scientists predict that it will approach again in 2036 and 2068, creating further opportunities for risk.
A particularly worrying factor is the so-called Yarkovsky effect, a phenomenon that could alter the asteroid’s trajectory due to solar radiation. This could increase the probability of impact in the next close passes. In fact, in 2020, the research team detected an orbital shift of 170 meters per year, which rekindled concerns about the risk of an impact in 2068.
Is NASA ready?
NASA, along with other space agencies, is working tirelessly to improve our capabilities for monitoring and preventing asteroid impacts. The organization regularly conducts exercises to simulate emergency scenarios, but the latest report revealed that, at the moment, we are not prepared for the worst-case scenario.
The most recent simulations showed that the asteroid would hit densely populated areas, including North America, Europe, and North Africa, with a 72% chance of impacting one of these areas. In addition, the asteroid would be too close to the Sun to be easily observed, making timely intervention difficult.
Despite these challenges, NASA is trying to improve its preparedness. A space telescope, the Near Earth Object Surveyor, will launch in 2028 to detect new near-Earth asteroids and improve our ability to monitor potentially hazardous objects.
Are we really ready?
The threat of Apophis reminds us how fragile our existence on planet Earth is. Are we really ready to face an emergency of this magnitude? At the moment, the answer seems to be no. Experts continue to work on defense plans, but there are many unknowns, and politics and economic resources do not always cooperate in the long term.
We cannot afford to let our guard down, because the next asteroid may not give us time to adequately prepare. NASA and scientists around the world are doing everything they can to prepare as best they can, but the debate on how to deal with these situations remains open. If you liked the article or it made you think, let us know what you think in the comments, or share it with your friends! Don’t forget to follow us on Instagram to stay up to date on all the news from the world of science and technology.
