The Black Crisis of France
Journalist Jean-Baptiste Noé writes in Limes magazine n. 7/2024 that “Paris experiences the conflict as a humiliation of its strategic autonomy. He fears having to send soldiers there not to fight the Russians, but to avoid a civil war. The renunciation of diplomacy, left to the USA and China, is an affront and an admission of defeat”.
The outcome of the conflict seems obvious, Ukraine is a materially destroyed country, where the demographic decline is making itself felt. It looks a lot like a “protectorate” of the Americans and the EU. Macron’s France is among the biggest supporters of Kiev, as you will remember from his statements, a few months ago, regarding the intention of a direct intervention of the French army, stopped by NATO.
The consequences of the Ukrainian “black hole” will certainly be significant, even if the President does not seem to want to notice. Paris’s first problem is crime. Thousands and thousands of weapons of all kinds have arrived in Ukraine. A good part of them has not been used for defense against the Russian FederationThe corruption that reigned supreme before the war has increased significantly.
The weapons end up in the hands of criminal networks who resell them to other individuals. France is the first country to have suffered crimes involving weapons from Ukraine, such as a shooting in Marseille in May 2023, carried out by drug traffickers.
Limes points out that “similar episodes have been observed in Grenoble in some settling of scores between criminal gangs. On May 14, 2024, a spectacular escape took place at a toll station in Normandy: a mobile phone was stopped by men in military gear who shot down the two drivers and freed the prisoner. The weapons used in the attack were American-made and of Ukrainian origin.”
As early as July 2022, Europol warned that the smuggling would turn to the countries of the European Union. Ukrainian weapons were also found in other European countries: Sweden, Finland, Denmark. In June 2023, i24 News reported that they were also sold to Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah.
When the fighting ends, strong political and social tensions will return. There have already been warnings, between the president and his former chief of staff, which led to the replacement of the latter. The popular discontent, the defeat, the uncertain borders, the unemployment, the deaths will be blamed on Zelensky and, inevitably, on Macron, who, not surprisingly, is defeated in the elections and resoundingly beaten by the far right of Marine Le Pen and the far left of Mélenchon, both eurosceptic and pro-peace political formations. It cannot be ruled out, a priori, that a civil war could break out, plunging the country into chaos.
“The tensions that have been going on in Ukraine since the 1910s are a form of civil war between Ukrainians who look to Russia and other Ukrainians who look to Europe.” This division could cause all sorts of problems, even very serious and long-lasting ones.i, regarding the possible integration into NATO or the European Union, which Macron’s France does not seem to want to see.
The Orthodox Church also split, with the Church of Kiev proclaiming autocephaly and separating from that of Moscow, with subsequent recognition by the Patriarch of Constantinople. The specter of religious motivations adds to the worsening conflicts in Ukraine.
All this instability “could lead to a destabilization of the internal borders of the European Union” – suggests Limes. “Romania, Hungary and Poland could be tempted to recover territories and peoples once under their jurisdiction. This is not about being catastrophic, but rather remembering that similar scenarios have occurred in the past – in countries crossed by intense wars – and have always led not only to the ruin of the theater of combat but also of neighboring ones. To avoid them, you have to know them and prepare” – Limes always maintains.
“Paris has found itself in a diplomatic dead end from which it does not know how to escape. It is once again the victim of the Syrian syndrome. The French government has been reckless with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, going so far as to call for his overthrow. In 2013, it volunteered to lead a military operation against Damascus, which was cancelled at the last minute following the US refusal to participate.
Ten years later, Assad is still in power, Syria has been reinstated in several international forums and Arab countries have restored diplomatic relations. But Paris does not know how to restore relations with Damascus without giving the impression of a humiliating backtracking” (Limes, n.7/2024)
Furthermore, Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire had promised to “bring the Russian economy to its knees.” This did not happen. The sanctions have not had the expected effect: Vladimir Putin’s power has not weakened and Moscow continues to stock up on weapons. Faced with the failure of this policy, it is France’s credibility that has been severely damaged, as well as its influence on the European and world stage.
Paris is no longer able to build peace in Europe, it no longer has influence in Russia and must rely on competitors, indeed adversaries, such as China and Turkey. Finally, after weeks of waiting and feverish negotiations, France has a new prime minister. It is Michel Barnier, former European Commissioner and chief negotiator on behalf of Brussels on Brexit. The choice arrived at by President Emmanuel Macron, after a long hesitation, is trying to manage an unprecedented situation in the National Assembly, which lacks a majority. Macron’s bet, in other words, is that ‘Mr. Brexit’ will use his nearly 50 years of political experience to build bridges. and ferry France out of its current political stalemate. But before the eyes of Europe and the entire world, grandeur has definitively set.
To all this we add other details, awaiting the results of the journalistic analysis: Candace Owens, an American investigative journalist, has expressed her opinion on the investigation by journalist Xavier Poussard on Emmanuel Macron’s family. Speaking, in general, of the powerful, she stated in a video on Telegram: “my theory is that they put pedophiles and their victims in positions of command, so they can control them, all over the world”.
“First of all, we don’t know much about Macron. He grew up with his grandmother and the house where they lived is now closed. This is very strange. There are no photographs of Macron with his parents until he was 25. We discovered that a woman named François Nogias, presented as Emmanuel Macron’s mother, was in charge of a medical program for transgender people in France. This information has never appeared in the newspapers. And there are testimonies that we found, in which transgender people thank François Noguesse for this program. We must also remember that Macron, before becoming president, was a banker for the Rothschilds. But he did not have the qualifications to be a banker.”
