Pablo Marçal’s (PRTB) wave in the São Paulo capital election proved to be consistent and voluminous, but it did not become the tsunami projected by the former coach’s campaign. The new Datafolha poll indicates that the three leaders in the race have a solid enough base to keep the game open for a few more weeks.
Marçal’s sudden stoppage suggests that his candidacy is facing a different moment from the euphoria at the beginning of the campaign. Targeted by almost all of his opponents, he has maintained a level of support that consolidates him as a competitive candidate surrounded by convinced supporters: 70% of his voters say they will not change their vote.
The artillery that highlighted the former coach’s past and connections, however, seems to have contributed to interrupting his upward trajectory. Since the last poll, Marçal has become better known and has seen his rejection rate rise from 34% to 38%. Of every two voters who know him, one says they will not vote for him under any circumstances.
Ricardo Nunes’ (MDB) recovery is on the other side of these data. Marçal has a good lead in the share of voters who voted for Jair Bolsonaro in 2022, but the mayor held on to 31% of these votes at a time when there was an expectation of a mass exodus to the former coach.
Threatened with desertion, the mayor maintained important positions and managed to gain ground among low-income voters — a group in which he finds the best approval ratings for his government. These were the first signs of the functioning of the municipal machine, strong in the outskirts, and of the advertising on TV.
In the race for the poorest voters, who represent about a third of São Paulo residents, Guilherme Boulos’ (PSOL) struggle remains the main problem in his campaign. Lula’s entry into television and the expected decline of José Luiz Datena (PSDB), who is doing relatively well in this segment, have not given the congressman any breathing room.
With one month to go until the vote, the persistence of the three-way tie creates a scenario that tends to fuel more radical calls for a useful vote. Boulos depends on a firm support from left-wing voters, while Nunes reinforces the idea that Marçal would be defeated in the second round.
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