Based on the IPCA-15 for July, forecasts point to a 0.35% change in the full IPCA for the month, and lower increases than in July through November, between 0.2% and 0.3% through the end of the year, except in December, when inflation could rise to around 0.4%. These are the projections of economist Fábio Romão, an experienced price monitoring specialist at LCA Consultores, after the results of the IPCA-15 for July are known.
If these projections are confirmed, the accumulated inflation in 12 months, from now until November, should hover around the ceiling of the tolerance range of the target system, closing the year with some relief, in the vicinity of 4.2%. Fábio Romão, economist at LCA Consultores
Price sensitive groups
The sensitive food group saw some relief in this IPCA-15, reflecting the return of pressures caused by the climate tragedy in Rio Grande do Sul between May and June. Food prices are expected to continue falling in the coming months. Overall, however, the result, according to projections, will be an increase of close to 5%, which contrasts sharply with the increase of just 1% in 2023.
Another sensitive group — services — which influences the interest rate policy defined by the Central Bank, although it does not show a significant price acceleration, also does not signal a noteworthy slowdown. In the IPCA-15 of July, for example, the group accounted for 25 points of the 30 points of increase in the index, although almost half of this was due to the increase in airfares. The pace of price increases observed last year is expected to be repeated in 2024.
