USA, Kamala Harris’ impact on Italian politics
Joe Biden’s renunciation of the presidential race, and the simultaneous designation, by Biden himself, of his vice president Kamala Harris as the ideal candidate for the Democratic Party, and therefore as a challenger to Donald Trump, is certainly the international political news of the last few days. The scenario that has been created in the United States is truly unprecedented, and many are wondering how an electoral campaign that will surely go down in history will evolve.
But what implications could all this have on Italian politics? How will our parties behave, what “position” will they assume? As always, to get an idea we can start from the polls, not on the preferences of American voters but on what Italian citizens think.
A recently published research by the SWG institute, regarding who Italians would like, between Biden and Trump, as the next president of the United States, he gave an interesting indication. In fact, when asked by SWG, the clear majority of those interviewed in the survey expressed no doubts: “Neither,” for 61%. Of the remaining 39%, 24% would choose Donald Trump (with a preponderance among center-right voters), just 15% Joe Biden.
If this is the case, it would be appropriate, in theory, for the various parties in our political landscape to assume the following positions. Matteo Salvini’s League, a long-time pro-Trump leader, can only confirm, with the same determination as before, its sympathy for the former president.
Forza Italia, which is firmly aligned with the Atlantic camp and with its leader strongly committed, as Foreign Minister, to reaffirming Italy’s support for Ukraine, would be better off not taking a position on the candidates, and reaffirming the consolidated pro-American tradition that characterizes the party founded by Silvio Berlusconi, regardless of who will be the next president. A little more complex is the position of Giorgia Meloni and her party, who must try to balance two partially opposing needs. That is, to remain aligned with Europe (oriented towards unconditional support for Ukraine) on the one hand, and on the other hand to not enter into a dialectic of premature opposition with a probable Trump presidency (as well as not to contradict the orientations of its own electorate).
Even in this case, however, the option that would be preferable at the moment is that of a cautious “staying on the sidelines,” if only to wait to learn more about the positions Kamala Harris will take.
For the opposition, as a whole, the most reasonable position seems to be to side with Kamala Harris, barring any unforeseen positions that the latter might take. Which Harris, however, still has to obtain the actual validation of her “nomination”, promoted by Biden, by the Democratic Party. One more reason, especially for Giorgia Meloni, so as not to go out on a limb in this delicate transition phase of the American electoral campaign.
In short, at the moment the most effective communication strategy for the Italian parties is the following: open support for Trump by Salvini, prudent “waiting and seeing” for Tajani and Meloni, open support for Kamala Harris for the PD, AVS and the Five Star Movement. As well as for Renzi and Calenda, if only to consolidate the (perhaps) nascent axis with Elly Schlein’s PD.
*political scientist and pollster
