In the complicated geopolitical scenario there is an actor that we Westerners often struggle to fully understand: it is China. What role can Beijing play in the Middle East and Ukraine? And again: what are China's objectives and ambitions? Does Taiwan really risk being the theater of a new war? The Post Internazionale (TPI) asked these and other questions to Francesco Maringiò, journalist and business consultant as well as expert on the Chinese market and scholar of contemporary China, who helped us to better understand both what is happening in China from an economic and political, but also to analyze Chinese strategies in light not only of ongoing conflicts but also of the upcoming US presidential elections.
What a moment China is experiencing from an economic and political point of view in the face of a still precarious economic recovery, and above all a real estate crisis that shows no signs of abating. Beijing's economic forecasts estimate GDP growth at around 5% like last year. What will the actual scenario be?
«Personally, I always have in mind an article from the “New York Times” entitled “The Land That Failed to Fail” which underlined how the real failure was not to fail despite the catastrophic predictions of the time. Several times there have been moments in the history of post-1949 China during which there were structural changes in the economy which however have always been overcome despite the most catastrophist analyzes which have always proven to be wrong. Faced with the current situation there is obviously a remodulation of the economic model and until now Chinese economists have excluded the so-called catastrophist path. Even faced with a real estate market which for a long period has driven the GDP, especially of the provincial economies, and which today has entered a completely different phase, I notice a certain optimism about being able to control the situation. To date, China has had 45 years of uninterrupted development without a real financial crisis and is on its way to becoming a high-income country. And even the economic forecasts for this year are not negative: if all the forecasts, including those of the International Monetary Fund which predict 5% growth, prove correct, China will contribute 30% of the world's GDP. Comparing the Chinese economy to the state of global health, all things considered, there are no catastrophic scenarios in sight. This does not mean that there is no need for a change in the economic model.”
How does China position itself in the current scenario, which currently sees two wars underway, in Ukraine and Gaza?
«On Gaza there is a passage that in my opinion perfectly clarifies the Chinese point of view. I am referring to the resolution that the USA presented to the UN on March 22nd and which was vetoed by China and Russia. The Chinese ambassador to the UN on that occasion clarified that the starting point of any UN resolution that could allow us to take a step forward is that there be an explicit reference to what he called an “immediate” ceasefire , unconditional and lasting.” On the Middle Eastern crisis, it is clear that Beijing's starting point is to reach a ceasefire as quickly as possible. China supports, as is known, the creation of a Palestinian state and therefore considers the two-state solution as a solution that can lead to peace and balance in the region, but the first fundamental point is that of a ceasefire. Which was also a common feature in the Ukrainian crisis, although here the situation is obviously a little different. China has appointed its own representative to attempt, if not mediation, at least a dialogue with both sides. Faced with these crises, China's attitude is always the same: that is, to preserve the role of the United Nations which must play a mediating role. In Europe we have had more difficulty understanding the Chinese position on the Ukrainian affair, however China's positions are the same in both conflicts currently underway.”
After the clash between Israel and Iran, China was asked to mediate with Tehran. What role can Beijing play in the Middle East and what are its interests in the region?
«Relations between China and the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have undergone considerable development since the beginning of the 2000s. Since then China has become the main trading partner of several countries in the region and imports half of of its oil needs. As in the case of the Ukrainian conflict where Western countries ask China to put pressure on Russia to achieve a specific strategic objective, so in the case of the crisis between Iran and Israel we ask ourselves what pressure Beijing can put on Tehran. But the Chinese ruling class does not think this way. On March 10, 2023, to the great surprise of the international community, China mediated the reconciliation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which resumed diplomatic relations interrupted in 2016. This was possible due to a Chinese policy of neutrality with respect to regional disputes , strong economic cooperation with all parties and a political perspective that was not based on pressure on one party in favor of a certain solution. All this has made it possible to achieve a success that is a stabilizing factor for the region, with direct consequences on the Yemeni and Syrian affairs, for example. This is Beijing's preferred modus operandi. Which is no coincidence that it supports Saudi Arabia's entry into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (where Iran already exists) and within which there are countries with rivalries and border disputes such as India and Pakistan. Precisely the Middle East affair allows us to better understand how China works on the world stage.”
What are Beijing's ambitions for a new world order and the objectives that China sets itself in the current geopolitical context?
«In the official positions, China's positions are those previously listed, i.e. the centrality of the UN and therefore the relaunch of the United Nations and also of all multilateral bodies. Personally, I believe that one of China's ambitions could be to democratize some structures or, above all, some mechanisms. The world that Beijing imagines does not foresee the possibility of unilaterally ending up under sanctions due to an American decision. The idea that one could be excluded from international payment systems or that the only currency for global commercial transactions, as has been the case for a long time, is simply the dollar is clearly considered something unfair for the Chinese who aspire precisely to change these aspects. So not to change a hierarchy, that is, not to move from one unitarism under one flag to another under a different flag, but simply to build different relationships, which are the ones that have also allowed China to grow economically for a long time.”
Is Taiwan at risk of being the theater of a new war?
«This is obviously a focal point not only for relations between Taipei and Beijing but it is a focal point of world politics. The Chinese point of view is well known: Beijing represents all the Chinese people. From this point of view, the Chinese do not intend to retreat or open up to any secessionist attempt or push. This, in my opinion, is the common thread, which not surprisingly also emerged in the recent dialogue between Xi Jinping and Biden. Any type of policy or initiative in the direction of Taiwan's independence can lead to an escalation and therefore to a scenario that we obviously do not want to see. If, however, there are no pushes in the secessionist direction then I believe that the situation can be managed in some way. It's all about understanding whether there is the will or the intention to cross this red line.”
How are relations between the US and China at present in light of Blinken's recent trip to Beijing and the phone call between Biden and Xi whose official statement speaks of “two countries that should respect each other, coexist in peace and pursue beneficial cooperation for everyone”.
«The phone call between the two presidents consolidates what happened with the San Francisco summit in November 2023, or when Xi Jinping went to the USA. There is an attempt, also by the Biden administration, to keep the relationship with China on a level of continuous communication after the rupture that occurred particularly after Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. The phone call between Biden and Xi Jinping set the stage for a series of high-level meetings, not least that between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the Chinese president. The downside is that Biden has reiterated, once again, restrictions on the export of technological material. It is clear that this decision is evaluated negatively by China. Personally I think this is a mistake because we have learned that every time the Chinese were ousted from scientific or technological projects, they then pursued their own path of modernization. Just think of the issue of space missions. China has been completely excluded and the result is that today there are space explorations and technologies, about which we know relatively little because the Chinese developed them themselves. This is also a mistake in the interests of the West.”
A few months before the US presidential elections, who is “rooting” for China between Biden and Trump and why.
«China often thinks of American elections as a dispute between parties and candidates who are alternative but not in their positions on China. It's difficult for them to truly root for one over the other. Personally I believe that the aforementioned phone call between Biden and Xi Jinping is still a positive sign if we think that the Biden administration, once elected, despite not having used the same arguments as Trump against China, has nevertheless kept the so-called war going technological and commercial set by Trump, adding the entire campaign on human rights. From the Chinese point of view, the American election campaign period is generally the worst period in relations with the USA because China often becomes one of the battlegrounds. What we can really hope for is that the new administration, whatever it may be, is able to build a dialogue at least capable of delimiting the points on which the two countries agree and those on which there may evidently be distances because this helps we Europeans can also play our part in the relationship with China.”
