The passage of time is Jair Bolsonaro's valuable ally.
The repugnant captain was impeached by the Superior Electoral Court, he is technically ineligible, but the prospect of his criminal punishment for conspiring against the democratic regime seems distant.
If political crime is also driven by passion, time tends to cool the punitive instinct. The scammer (and, by extension, the scam itself) ends up becoming normalized. This is the case of Getúlio Vargas: the tyrant of the Estado Novo is “acquitted” by history and becomes a father of the poor, a martyr for popular causes.
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But the focus is Bolsonaro. There are a range of reasons for the small prediction.
On July 18, the reckless meeting with ambassadors (the initial milestone in the chain of acts that culminates in the destruction of January 8) will complete two years. But for now, only the lower clergy know the rigors of the law.
The system is slipping in relation to the former president. It takes too long. The PF, the PGR and the STF, premeditated or not, it doesn't matter, play into the hands of the main criminals, civilians and military.
Ineligible, but unpunished, free, the former president is part of Brazil's political daily life and, apparently, is no longer a threat. Travels, receives tributes. Radical and offensive speech is strategically set aside. The TSE's decision comforts Democratic thinking and for many it is enough.
Until now, Jair Bolsonaro is prevented from being a candidate in 2026. Even believing that the decision is unfair, extremist, the result of an authoritarian deviation from the dictatorship of the Judiciary, traditional allies prefer the former president out of the electoral race, victimized, transferring on the platforms its political capital for a supposedly milder right-wing project.
In theory, the figure of the coup plotter would inspire repugnance. Anyone who supports a coup plotter or receives support from a coup plotter deserves to be treated as a coup plotter. It's not like that here.
The governor of São Paulo, a subtle supporter of the coup attempt, subservient, accomplice and unconditional ally of the Bolsonarist barbarities committed throughout his government, starting with the ideal of the murderous police, is observed as a moderate political figure.
The failure to conclude the trial of Senator Jorge Seif (PL-SC) is a preview of the “justice and peace” solution that is being prepared for Jair Bolsonaro.
Minister Alexandre de Moraes, the preferred victim of Bolsonaro attacks on social media, always a candidate for a possible request for impeachment in the Senate, much less powerful after leaving the TSE, received, with the generous endorsement of the Bolsonaro governor of São Paulo, the promise of sub judice senator to no longer speak ill of the venerable Brazilian courts: the impeachment for abuse of economic power resulting from the help of the braggart businessman Luciano Hang is thus on the calendar, for days that will never arrive.
The Bolsonaro candidate for mayor of São Paulo, therefore a coup leader, although somewhat hesitant, as he considers himself a man of the “center”, says that Bolsonaro is persecuted, says that there was no coup attempt and advocates amnesty for the criminals of January 8th.
In addition to the dominant sympathy in the National Congress, Jair Bolsonaro has the silent but effective support of Supreme Court ministers. Due to ideological affinity, pure opportunism or fear of institutional vendettas.
Time passes. The coup turns into a distant, unlikely, fictional narrative. Amnesty is a political flag. It's wait and see.
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