The authors of the study, which was published Thursday in The Lancet, concluded from their extrapolation of the currently recorded demographic changes that “the annual number of new cases, which reached 1.4 million in 2020, will double in 2040, reaching 2.9 million” cases.
Researchers saw “increasing life expectancy and changes in age pyramids” as a reason for this rise, according to what Agence France-Presse reported.
Prostate cancer is the most common type of male cancer in men, accounting for 15% of all cases, and it occurs over the age of fifty in most cases. The frequency of cases increases gradually in age groups above this threshold.
As many poor or developing countries are in the process of partially closing the life expectancy gap compared to their developed counterparts, the number of prostate cancer cases is expected to automatically increase.
The researchers added, “Unlike other major problems, such as lung cancer or cardiovascular disease, it will not be possible through public health policies to avoid this increase in cases,” according to AFP.
Indeed, prevention cannot be as beneficial in reducing risk factors for prostate cancer, such as genetics, height, etc., as smoking cessation, for example, is for lung cancer.
It has only been shown that there is a link between prostate cancer and excess weight, but it is not clear whether the relationship between them is causal.
However, the study authors believe that it is possible to reduce the increase in prostate cancer through several measures.
For example, they called for early diagnosis to be sought in less affluent countries, noting that prostate cancers there are often discovered too late to be treated effectively.
They warned, on the other hand, of the danger of “over-diagnosis and over-treatment” in developed countries.