Suara.com – PT Jasa Utama Capital Sekuritas Senior Equity Analyst, Samuel Glenn Tanuwidjaa predicts that gold prices will move in the range of US$1,940-1,980 / troy ounces taking into account the negative effects of the continued increase in oil prices.
“Based on earnings performance which is still above average and gold prices which tend to be stable with estimated FY23 EPS at IDR 174 per share and a PE Ratio of 11.2x, the BUY recommendation for ANTM is with a target price of IDR 1,920 per share,” explained Samuel, written Monday ( 9/25/2023).
In detail, he explained that the performance of BUMN issuers in the mining sector was quite stable. Antam’s revenue remains stable with an average growth of 15% yoy.
However, below the average growth of the previous five years (same period), this was supported by an increase in the average selling price of gold.
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“Apart from that, on the operational side, sales volume of gold metal rose to 13,508 kg or grew 0.3%. I also saw an increase in operating profit and ANTM’s net profit rose 59% yoy and 24% yoy,” explained Samuel.
According to Jasa Utama Capital Sekuritas, this also exceeds the average increase over the last 5 years, supported by a decrease in general and administrative expenses of 30.4% and a decrease in selling expenses of 3%.
Apart from that, I also see an increase in ANTM’s net profit margin in semester 1 2023, by 0.4% to a level of 8.7% compared to the average throughout 2022, namely 8.3%.
“Considering that 62% of ANTM’s revenue comes from gold sales, I see revenue from the gold segment will continue to increase,” said Samuel.
The factors include, among others, economic conditions in China which are reported to be declining, with PMI manufacturing performance, retail performance and property sales, as well as declining export and import performance for several quarters in 2023, also increasing investor demand for gold as a safe haven instrument.
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Apart from that, the volatile economic outlook due to the increase in WTI and Brent oil prices which rose to the highest level since March 2022 is also considered to be able to impose transportation costs on domestic and international issuers, this increases investors’ concerns about a decline in the performance of issuers’ profitability margins and changes in value. The stock price valuation of listed companies is lower, especially in the manufacturing, hotel & restaurant, retail consumer goods and mining sectors.
For your information, global gold prices have risen 1.6% this month and are approaching the resistance level of US$ 1,944/ounce.