The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) improved its estimate of economic growth in Mexico for 2023, considering that it will grow 2.6% instead of 1.8% which he predicted last March.
By 2024, the agency He maintained his expectation that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will expand 2.1 percent.
In the 2023 Economic Outlook, the OECD anticipated that after inflation reached 7.9% in Mexico in 2022, in 2023 it will be 5.9% and in 2024 it will reach 3.7 percent.
This year, “consumption will be supported by the improvement in the labor market, but will be held back by high inflation. Investment will benefit from the reduction of bottlenecks in global value chains and the relocation of manufacturing activity towards Mexico”.
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However, “greater regulatory certainty, including in the energy sector, will help make the most of the ongoing relocation of production processes to Mexico.”
From his perspective, heMexican monetary policy must remain restrictive to ensure that inflation comes down.
Inflationary estimates for Mexico consider that the subsidies that are given to fuels to mitigate the inflationary impact will be maintained in 2023 and 2024.
The OECD estimated that Mexican exports will grow less due to the economic slowdown in the United States, country whose economy will expand 1.6% in 2023 and 1% in 2024. In fact, the organization has begun to detect a weakening of manufacturing activity.
Global growth will be 2.7% in 2023 and 2.9% next year. Meanwhile, for the 38 OECD countries, including Germany, Canada, the United States, Japan and Turkey, the forecast is 1.4% for 2023 and 2024.
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Inflation forecasts for OECD countries are 6.9% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024, which means a reduction after registering 9.3 percent in 2022.
Nevertheless, “Core inflation remains too persistent. Debt levels are too high. And potential output is too low.”
In the document, the OECD indicated that the global economy is turning around to stay on a long path to achieve strong and sustainable growth, because energy prices begin to fall, bottlenecks in the supply chain decrease supply, there is a reopening of the Chinese economy, both employment and household finances are strengthened, which contributes to the recovery.
Governments have to navigate a difficult path, especially emerging economies face higher debt service costs, capital outflows, reduced credit availability from external providers.
In addition to the fact that, despite the improvements, the world faces increasing geopolitical tensions and security concerns in the supply chain, restrictive trade policies, all of which require action, structural reforms and removing barriers.
JM
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