Heat, heat and more heat. That is the best summary of AEMET’s forecast for the next few days: more than 30 °C in large areas of the Peninsula, 35 °C in the southern half and the Ebro valley; and maybe 40 °C in the Guadalquivir.
That is, “a situation extremely abnormal” for the month of April that, in fact, you can put the thermometers for above normal for the month of July in many areas of the country. Why is this happening? How reliable are these estimates? What can we expect?
Why do the forecasts warn of a record heat? The models draw such a hot scenario because the mass that is going to enter the Peninsula it is very warm. Surprisingly warm. The best indicator to know is the air temperature at about 1500 meters. It is the best indicator because, at that height, the air receives less influence from the surface and allows us to better identify its, to call it somehow, “own temperature”.
And that own temperature is key because it is directly reflected in the temperature that we experience (or enjoy) on the surface. Hence the models they are forecasting that “as of Wednesday, it will be very likely to exceed 30 ºC in large areas of the center, south and northeast of the Peninsula” and that “in the Guadalquivir valley [la probabilidad de superar 35 ºC] It will be very high.”
But watch out for the details. Because, in the same way that the heat of the air mass influences the temperature at ground level, there are many other similar phenomena. If a very warm mass arrives and encounters the famous “Iberian oven” (clear skies, no wind and a high incidence of sunlight), the heat on the surface skyrockets. On the other hand, if by the work and grace of atmospheric circulation, the skies are overcast, the temperatures will not rise as much.
And the fact is that throughout the week we can see both things: while in the Guadalquivir valley it seems that we are going to have conditions for it to be exorbitantly hot (and in a good part of Eastern Andalusia temperatures of up to 15 degrees can be seen above normal), there are signs that clouds (and even storms) in the northwest will help contain the situation.
And if we do not reach such high temperatures? That is within the possible. Always, in fact. It is true that, as the days go by, it is less likely that a “pseudo-heat wave” will not occur this week, but we must not forget that we are talking about models, nor that we are entering relatively new territory.
In fact, in recent days some meteorological comment that the AEMET models are tending to paint higher maximums (5 or 6 degrees) than those that are finally recorded. It is still early to know what is happening (if something is really happening), but it is good to keep all this in mind to avoid unjustified surprises.
What is no longer a surprise is the heat in Europe. The 2022 State of the European Climate report just released by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) is incredibly telling. During this past year, the Mediterranean area registered between 70 and almost one hundred days of “very strong thermal stress”, the highest number of days with these temperatures recorded so far. As if that were not enough, we are also experiencing the longest drought ever recorded in Europe. To the point that 63% of European rivers are with a flow rate below average.
Nor the problems that this entails. Why if it really gets to 40 degrees in the south of the peninsula, we will find ourselves in a critical situation for the olive grove. And by “critical” I mean that the entire flower is going to burn and the harvest is going to reach historical lows. Without significant rains and with the coordination problems between the Hydrographic Confederations and the farmers, the countryside is heading towards a very deep crisis.
A crisis that, it is a matter of time, will reach the drinking water of millions of people.
In Xataka | According to the cabañuelas, the ants predict the end of the drought. According to AEMET, it is time to stop fooling around
Imagen | ECMWF
