The Mexican economy would have slowed down last March, Despite this, a good result is anticipated for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of the year, reveal the most recent projections of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).
The Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) forecasts that the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) had a monthly growth of just 0.1% in March 2023, after it had reached a rise of 0.7 percent in February.
Using the IGAE for January and these estimates, GDP for the first quarter of the year would have advanced around 1.4% compared to the immediately preceding period, Banorte analysts estimate.
This represents an acceleration compared to the fourth quarter of 2022when it grew 0.5%, which supports the specialists’ view of a good dynamism of the Mexican economy at the beginning of the year, supported by positive fundamentals and even despite some uncertainty in external conditions.
This lower dynamism of the economy in March is the result of the stagnation of industrial activity during the third month of the yearafter in February it reported an increase of 0.7%, and in January a decrease of 0.1 percent.
For its part, the services sector would have observed an estimated monthly growth of 0.6% last February and 0.1% in March 2023, despite the dynamism of inflation.
In this way, and at an annual rate, The IOAE anticipates a 3.8% increase in the country’s economic activity for the third month of 2023, based on seasonally adjusted figures. The expected annual variation of industrial activities would be an increase of 3.0% and of the services sector of 4.2%, for the reference period.
The IOAE makes it possible to have timely estimates on the evolution of the IGAE. Thus, while the IGAE and its economic activities are released approximately eight weeks after the end of the reference month, the IOAE presents its estimates just three weeks after the end of the month. With this, the publication of official data is five weeks ahead of time, explained the Inegi in its statement.
JM
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