Goldman Sachs against Italy: the spread risks soaring
Italy has to deal with the distrust of markets. US giant Goldman Sachs came out into the open, inviting the investors to bet on Spanish debt rather than the Italian one. For the US bank new rate hikes and hitches on Pnrr (and relative lower growth) will raise the spread: hence the explicit invitation to bet on Madridconsidered more stable. The notorious “markets” – reads the Fatto Quotidiano -, at the moment, do not seem to have given too much weight to the matter, but certainly the news relaunched yesterday by Bloomberg could not have pleased the government: in a report sent last Friday by the US investment bank Goldman Sachs, one of the largest in the world and former employer of Mario Draghi between 2002 and 2005, he advised his clients to “go short” on the Italian debt. In essence, to bet against the BTPs, in the hypothesis/prediction that the spread between the Italian ten-year bonds and the corresponding German Bunds out of about 50 basis points in the coming months: from approx Current 185 to 235.
The reason – continues il Fatto – is largely in the “correction“, which also took place last week, of the US bank’s forecasts on the future moves of the Bce: given that bank crashes appear limited e inflation is not going downthe European Central Bank will return to raise rates, probably at the June meeting, and it is unlikely that the “return” will begin within the year. The first and most obvious effect of a significant increase in spread would concern interest expenditure, already expected to increase in relation to GDP from 3.7% (75 billion) this year to 4.5% (100 billion) in 2026. In three years the debt would not go down to the end of the period, in 2026on current levels (over 144% compared to Pil).
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