Why Xi Jinping shores up Vladimir Putin’s position
Anyone who thought that Xi Jinping could unload Vladimir Putin, or that the other side could arm him, has failed to understand two things: theChina does not want to actively participate in the war in Ukraine, but if anything, to give the impression (assuming and granted it is true) that it is the party that wants to stop it most of all. Second: Xi’s priority is for Putin to remain in his post.
If it cannot win, the perpetuation of Putin’s system of power guarantees Beijing stability in its relations with its larger and more important neighbor (even stormy in the past) and above all it allows him to maintain a leverage that is growing more and more against a partner (not an ally, as Xi was keen to reiterate also on the occasion of his trip to Moscow) now almost entirely dependent on him.
This is how the two most relevant statements of Xi’s visit should be read. The first in order of time was the one on the 2024 Russian elections. “I know that Russia will hold presidential elections next year. Under your strong leadership, Russia has made great strides in its prosperous development. I am sure that the Russian people will continue to give you their unwavering support.”
Xi’s message to the West and the United States is crystal clear: “You have to deal with Putin.” Indirect response to the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court. To further strengthen his position, Xi has officially invited Putin to visit China during 2023. This visit could take place at the Belt and Road forum in the coming months, or even later. An invitation that clarifies that Beijing will not follow the indications of The Hague, also because it does not recognize its authority like Moscow, Washington and various other countries in the world.
Xi’s initiative in Russia serves to show the global projection of China as a “responsible power” and active in achieving peace. The implication is very clear: it is the United States that does not want peace, which is “throwing fuel on the fire”. Although the visit will also and above all serve to cement Beijing’s grip on what has become its junior partner, indeed according to the great expert on Sino-Russian relations Alexander Gabuev, Russia is now a “vassal” of China.
How will Xi’s favorable balance of power pay off? TO commercial level, getting more gas and oil at discounted prices. Possible acceleration on Power of Siberia 2, the gas pipeline under construction which will link Eastern Russia to the People’s Republic through Mongolia. China could instead maintain the semiconductor supply chain for Russia. From a strategic point of view, Xi could instead guarantee himself a greater strategic projection in Central Asia or the Arctic. Finally, it could also seek to strengthen the military partnership by asking in exchange for an easing of relations that Russia maintains with some of China’s regional rivals. First of all India.
But the plan at the diplomatic and rhetorical level, i.e. the broader one of Xi who aims to present China as a guarantor of stability after the success of the role played on the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, is thrown into the balance by the counter-offensive of the United States and Japan. Washington does not want to leave the Chinese narrative free to play. In recent days the White House and the State Department have repeatedly argued that a hypothetical Chinese peace plan would serve to obtain not a real peace but the freezing of Russian conquests.
The counteroffensive of the USA and Japan: Kishida from Zelensky
Under probable American direction, Japan is also moving in a way that has perhaps never been so bold. Precisely during the key day of Xi’s visit to Russia with the official meetings with Putin, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has decided to go on a surprise trip to Ukraine. The calculation of the leader of the second Asian power and third largest economy in the world appears clear: to draw a clear line and to reaffirm the Japanese position on the war and on the global scenario with unprecedented vigor. At the same time obfuscating Xi’s claim to neutrality, who hopes not to see his plans for the scheduled phone call with Volodymyr Zelensky in the coming days not get in the way.
Kishida arrives in Kiev directly from New Delhi, where he met Indian premier Narendra Modi, also strengthening the partnership in terms of security. A few days before, sealed historic relaunch of ties with South Korea during South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s visit to Tokyo. All moves that guarantee further alignment of Japan with the US and NATO, but which in all likelihood will lead to an increase in tensions with China and Russia in the Asia-Pacific. There where Kishida has said several times that a second front will open in the more or less near future.
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