OECD, it is ‘a fragile recovery’, but raises growth estimates. For Italy +0.6 in 2023, in the euro area +6.2
L’OECD get up the global GDP estimates for 2023 and 2024 but warns: recovery is “fragile” and the global growth will remain beyond under of the average historic both in 2023 and in 2024, respectively at 2.6% (+0.4 pp compared to the November estimates) and 2.9% (+0.2 pp), after the +3.2% recorded in 2022. In particular, it is stated inInterim Economic Outlook of the Parisian organization, the GDP trend in the United States is expected to reach 1.5% (+1 pp) in 2023 and 0.9% (-0.1 pp) in 2024. In the euro area, a growth of 0.8% (+0.3 pp) this year, then accelerating to 1.5% (+0.1 pp) next year as the effects of high energy prices subside. For Italy, the increase in GDP will be equal to 0.6% (+0.4 pp) in 2023 and 1% (unchanged estimate) in 2024. Things will go much better in China, thanks to the end of the zero Covid, with respectively +5.3% (+0.7 pp) and +4.9% (+0.8 pp) in the two years considered.
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OECD, inflation remains a concern
To worry remains inflation: if in fact the general one shows signs of moderation, that ‘of bottom‘ remains elevatedsupported by strong increases of the prices of the services, higher margins in some sectors and cost pressures resulting from labor market tightness. The race in consumer prices, says the OECD, will gradually slow down during 2023 and 2024, but will remain above central bank targets until the second half of next year in most countries.
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