Although the FBI and the US Department of Energy maintain, with low and moderate confidence, respectively, that the transmission of the COVID-19 virus is due to a laboratory leak, most of the scientific community still favors the hypothesis of natural contagion in which an animal would have served as a link between bats and humans.
On February 26, the prestigious newspaper The Wall Street Journal published an article revealing that a confidential intelligence report from the US Department of Energy had concluded “with low confidence” that the possible origin of the pandemic was a laboratory leak.
Two days later, the director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) from the United States, Chris Wray, in an interview for Fox News, reaffirmed the institution’s position that “most likely” the spread of SARS-CoV-2 was due to a potential incident in a laboratory in Wuhan (“medium reliability”).
Both milestones have caused quite a stir in multiple circles. Some people have misinterpreted the information and have indicated that both organizations concluded that it is a laboratory leak. However, the discussion about the possible origin of the virus is more complex.
Viral post misinterpreting information. Photo: Facebook capture
The escape from the laboratory, a hypothesis of “medium and moderate reliability”
First of all, it is necessary to explain that the intelligence reports of the United States classify their findings as: low, moderate and high reliability. The one issued recently by the Department of Energy uses the first of the labels. The one from the FBI, the one in the middle.
Four other agencies of the United States Government and the National Intelligence Council continue to support the hypothesis that the virus entered humanity naturally (that is, through animal contagion and mutations that allowed it to be transmitted from human to human). human), with “low reliability”.
Total, There would be two intelligence agencies (Department of Energy and the FBI) that advocate the theory of the escape of the virus from the laboratory, four due to natural contagion and two others remain undecided.according to The Wall Street Journal report.
Other investigations in favor of this are those carried out by the Senate Health Commission by the Republican Party and some by the State Department. The highest degree of reliability is that of the FBI: “moderate”.
All these organizations have recognized that they cannot ensure with certainty that the origin of the virus is due to one of the two hypotheses. The main reason is the little collaboration that the Chinese government has had with the initiatives to elucidate the start of SARS-CoV-2. This low level of evidence, according to the specialist and epidemiologist Antonio Quispe, is also present in the academic field.
“The pandemic was not a Chinese plan”
In The Wall Street Journal article, it is explained that although the Department of Energy and the FBI maintain that the insertion of the virus into humans was due to a laboratory leak, both organizations indicate that this was not intentional.
In other words, SARS-CoV-2 is not a Chinese government plan to reduce the population or decimate enemy countries, as various conspiracy theories claimed for some time. The fundamental cause would be an oversight by the laboratory, an “involuntary leak”.
There is an explanation that combines the hypothesis of natural transmission with laboratory escape. The virus would have been extracted from an animal and kept in one of these places without receiving genetic manipulation. Then, it infiltrated abroad due to some biosecurity failure.
In fact, a similar conclusion had been reached by US spy agencies in 2021.
For now, the most likely theory is that of natural transmission
Most of the scientific community, the WHO and, as we have already pointed out, most of the intelligence agencies in the United States are inclined towards the hypothesis that the virus spread to humans occurred naturally through an animal. intermediate between people and bats. Then, it had a mutation that allowed its transmission between humans.
Some important studies have concluded that no traces indicating some type of manipulation have been found in the genetic material of SARS-CoV-2. This is one of the most relevant arguments to point out that the virus probably did not come from one of these sites.
Although some specialists state that, given how advanced genetic engineering is, it is possible that any changes made to the DNA of the virus will be very difficult to find.
Another strong evidence to indicate that the transmission occurred naturally is the analysis of its path. All the first known human cases are related to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan.
Probably, there the infectious agent has jumped from an animal to humans. There are no reliable reports of previous cases of infection.
It should be noted that, although several scientists and officials consider natural contagion as the most plausible, they themselves have repeatedly called for more research on the laboratory leak theory.
The problems of the natural transmission hypothesis
Perhaps the biggest problem with the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 was naturally transmitted to humans so far is that no virus with a sufficiently close genetic makeup has been found in nature. In fact, it is not known for sure from which animal this infectious agent jumped to people.
The most similar virus found is the so-called RaTG13, with 96.2%, according to an article in The Wall Street Journal from 2021. This was identified in a bat from Yunnan, according to the researcher who published the findings.
The region is in the eye of suspicion because in 2012 some workers who were cleaning a cave with bats acquired a virus that triggered pneumonia with symptoms similar to those of COVID-19. The Wuhan laboratory a year later took several samples from the place and its fate is unknown. Now, the Chinese government does not let anyone in to make inquiries.
Another source of suspicion, according to Antonio Quispe, is that Wuhan is the city with the largest number of laboratories specialized in coronaviruses in China. Among these is the Institute of Virology, which had already successfully created viruses with pandemic potential.
Possible political interests
Lastly, it should be explained that the United States and China have been competing for the first place in economic predominance in the world for a long time. Many experts have called it a new cold war. In this sense, two experts pointed out, for the Science Medical Center of Spain, that it could well be “a communication war strategy”.
Antonio Quispe, for his part, explained that the position in favor of the theories of the escape from the laboratory of the intelligence agencies of the North American country may indeed be due to geopolitical purposes. However, the academic discussion, he pointed out, also debates between the two hypotheses. And this requires more rigorous and transparent filters to be able to publish.
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