ROME, 03 FEB – This year the Italian economy will slow down significantly compared to 2022, while continuing to expand by 0.6%. This is the latest forecast by the PBO, according to which “after a still weak first quarter, due to the persistence of global tensions, growth will gradually strengthen, taking advantage of the easing of inflationary pressures”. According to the February Note on the Economic Situation by the Parliamentary Budget Office, in 2024 the GDP trend would consolidate at 1.4 per cent, “assuming the progressive improvement of the international geopolitical and economic context”. The estimate is in line with that of the government for this year but not for the next, given that the Nadef indicates growth of 1.9% for 2024. The Upb specifies that “the forecasts assume the complete implementation of the investment programs of the Pnrr, agreed upon within the Community, but also the continuation of the ECB’s restrictive monetary policy cycle inaugurated in the second half of last year”. However, the implementation of the Pnrr, together with the war in Ukraine, represents one of the factors of uncertainty weighing on the forecasts. “The ongoing conflict on the doorstep of the EU certainly represents the greatest risk, on all forecasting horizons”, writes the Upb. Furthermore, “despite the relative relaxation of frictions in logistics and bottlenecks in supply, the very strong increases in energy costs and the shortage of some materials could affect the hypothesis of the integral, timely and efficient implementation of the investment projects of the Pnrr”. (HANDLE).
Leave a Reply