A few days after one year of the outbreak of the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the prices of some foods, such as grains, will remain under pressure from the warconsidered economic specialists.
The confrontation that began on February 24 of last year is also joined by other factors such as the weather, the drop in production in the United States, in addition to the fact that energy prices will continue to be volatilethey point out.
Economists and international organizations observe that the war was combined with both internal and external factors, causing global effects, along with an energy crisis that caused low growth in certain countries, so that the affectations will not stop until the confrontation ends.
The general director of Grupo Consultor en Mercados Agrícolas (GCMA), Juan Carlos Anaya, said that future prices of corn, wheat and soybeans will continue at levels higher than those seen before the war.
“From the second week of January last year to February 2023, corn prices have increased by 38 dollars, that is, 16%,” he explained.
In addition, he added, soybeans registered an increase of 13%, that is, more than 65 dollars from the second week of January 2022 to February 2023, when the ton was sold for more than 560 dollars.
The price of wheat is at 321 dollars, but from the second week of January 2022 to February 2023 prices increased 47 dollars per ton, which represents 17 percent.
This has to do with the fact that the supply of corn and wheat produced by Ukraine was affected, which is combined with other factors, such as the lower production of corn in the United States and the impacts of the weather. It is also added the price variations that the energy market has reported worldwide, mainly oil and natural gas.
“It’s not just the war. There are also the impacts of the weather that affect production, because supply and demand are maintained even with inflation. This leads to markets being very volatile and there are high prices”Anaya said.
From 2022 to 2023
Price hike in a year
He corn it rose 38 dollars, that is, 16 percent. The soya registered an increase of 13%, that is, 65 dollars; now it costs $560 a ton. He wheat it is at 321 dollars per ton, 47 dollars more, which represents 17 percent.
Energy crisis and economic slowdown are the consequences
The war between Russia and Ukraine impacted the world economy since, on the one hand, it generated a large-scale energy crisis, as well as an economic slowdown, according to the 2023 Economic Outlook of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). .
According to the organization, it is “forecasted that the world economy will slow down during 2023 while the energy crisis of great magnitude and historical proportions caused by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine continues to fuel inflationary pressures, eroding confidence, household purchasing power and exacerbating risks around the world”.
The OECD estimated that the “world economy will grow at a rate clearly lower than the expected evolution before the war: a discreet 3.1% in 2022, to then slow down to 2.2% in 2023 and recover moderately to a still low rate of 2.7% in 2024”.
“The end of the war and a just peace for Ukraine would be the most effective way to rapidly improve the prospects for the world economy,” the agency said.
The OECD estimates that the Mexican economy will grow 1.6% this year, far from the official government estimate of 3 percent.
voice of the expert
Ignacio Martínez, coordinator of the UNAM Trade, Economy and Business Analysis Laboratory
Conflict puts pressure on the economy and inflation
The war generates pressure on the economy, specifically on inflation, affirms the coordinator of the Laboratory for Analysis of Commerce, Economy and Business at UNAM, Ignacio Martínez.
“It can continue to impact us on the prices of basic products and in terms of fuels. We would have a double effect: the benefit from the price of crude oil, but an increase in raw materials”, he pointed out.
Yes ok Oil prices may be high, as Mexico is an importer of gasoline and natural gas, this effect may be transferred to other prices.
Martinez stated that The war in Ukraine “has affected Mexico by 0.75 percentage points, but it has not impacted the producer more than one percentage point”.
In Mexico, inflation picked up in the first month of the year, to reach 7.91% at an annual rate, driven in part by the prices of services, which have not stopped increasing and registered their highest rise in almost 21 years, according to data published by the Inegi on February 9.
The experts were concerned that the underlying price index, which includes goods and services whose prices are less volatile, that is, the hard part of inflation, accelerated at an annual rate, going from 8.35% in December to 8.45%. in january.
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