ROME, FEBRUARY 18 – The Italian economy is starting to avoid recession also in the 1st quarter. In 2023 growth will have a low dynamic, slightly above or below +0.6%, but better than expected. This is what the Confindustria Study Center predicts. “The price of gas – he explains – is much lower at the beginning of the year than expected at the end of 2022: a good premise for the 1st quarter, for business costs and for the recovery path of inflation from the peak, which began in end of 2022”. For 2023 “there is a generalized and important upward revision compared to post-summer estimates, when stagnation or a moderate recession were expected” According to the CSC, the drop in energy prices since the end of 2022, which however remains well above the levels of two years ago, “is favoring the reduction of inflation in Italy and Europe (albeit at still high values) and this suggests that the rate hike will end by 2023 (not before another couple of increases).” If general inflation falls – it is raised – the cost of non-energy raw materials increases (+16.8% for metals) and also the dynamics of prices excluding energy and food are on the rise (+4.6% % from +4.2%), due to the transmission of price increases on other assets. (HANDLE).
(ANSA)
