Representatives of more than 50 countries gathered at Ramstein Air Base, a US-run military airbase in southwestern Germany, on Friday failed to agree on sending battle tanks to Ukraine, deemed essential by the Ukrainian government to defend against the invasion of Russia and a probable new offensive at the end of the winter. The lack of an agreement has various causes, but the main ones have been attributed to Germany, which since the beginning of the war in Ukraine has repeatedly hesitated in supplying arms and means, missing some promises or keeping them with significant delays, arousing the impatience of the allied countries assisting the Ukrainian military.
Despite the great cautions of its government, Germany is one of the main suppliers of arms to Ukraine, but the latest hesitations have once again focused attention on the hesitations of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The lack of agreement on sending German Leopard 2 tanks, considered important for activities in some areas of Ukraine, effectively prevents other countries that have those vehicles from sending them to the Ukrainian army, because the Germany that produces them must authorize their re-export.
Following Friday’s meeting, the German government announced it would carry out a review of Leopard 2 availability, with a view to potential future supply. However, Germany would like to link the sending of its tanks to supplies by the United States of the M1 Abrams, other powerful tanks.
According to various analysts, Germany’s caution derives at least in part from the great caution with which the country handles decisions in the military sphere, after the experience of the Second World War. Scholz has repeatedly referred to the need to explore all possible options before resorting to further supplies of weapons and means of warfare, in order to avoid an extension of the war.
However, Scholz has never explained in detail what consequences he fears the most, as Thorsten Benner, director of the Institute on Global Policies in Berlin recalled: «Going to Ukraine would be a significant step forward for this type of tank, the Leopard system, and for this reason (Germany) wants maximum reassurance from the United States. Something must be spinning in his head about the possibility of Germany becoming a retaliatory target for sending this type of German tank, but Scholz never said what it is.’
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After Friday’s meeting between the representatives of the allied countries, the new German defense minister, Boris Pistorius, denied the hypothesis that Germany is hindering the negotiations: «We must take stock of the pros and cons before making decisions of that type.” Scholz’s government followed this line for months, whenever it was necessary to authorize the shipment of new weapons and defense systems for Ukraine. Paradoxically, Germany ultimately supplied large quantities of equipment compared to other countries, but took months to decide.
Scholz is often described as the architect of this approach, pursued with a certain stubbornness typical of the character. From the very beginning of the invasion of Ukraine he said he did not want to leave Germany alone in decisions on arms supplies and that he wanted to avoid NATO giving the perception of being directly involved against Russia. According to polls carried out in Germany, the majority of the population approves of this approach and this gives Scholz further elements not to abandon it.
Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, a German military analyst and expert, reminded the Associated Press that the same approach would probably be followed by other chancellors: «No German chancellor, of any party, wants to be seen as promoting a military agenda: you want to try all other options before you boil down to that. Consequently, from the point of view of internal politics, the choice of a German chancellor not to promote these things is seen positively, as is that of being cautious, not bending over and having tried all the other options first”.
Various analysts believe that Scholz has consciously chosen not to become the leader in defense asset management for Ukraine, trying not to be too conspicuous among the motley group of allies who decide on supplies and strategies to help the Ukrainian military. However, Germany is at the same time one of the richest countries and with very efficient military means, such as the Leopard 2, consequently this approach causes frustrations among the more interventionist allies and for various reasons.
Eastern countries such as Poland and the Baltic republics, for example, feel more than others the proximity to Russia and the risks deriving from it, consequently they put more pressure on Germany. Last Wednesday, the Polish government raised the possibility of autonomously sending its Leopard 2 to Ukraine, even in the absence of explicit authorization from Germany.
In a commentary article published in the Guardian, the British historian Timothy Garton Ash recalled that the German government has significantly changed its position on military aid since the early days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to Garton Ash, however, the Leopard 2 affair is becoming the real point on which to verify Scholz’s ability to resist Vladimir Putin’s blackmails regarding an extension of the conflict and to overcome internal hesitations (partly due to the coalition that governs the German), so as to give clear support to Ukraine. Scolz should therefore become the leader of a «European plan for the Leopards».
At the moment Scholz does not seem to be interested in taking on such a role, preferring an approach that keeps him in the background, or at least on par with the other allied countries. However, the German government rejected the analysis that Germany wants to send Leopard 2s only on condition that the United States send its tanks, as Scholz’s spokesman said: «These are not simple decisions and must be carefully measured. In the sense that they must be sustainable, that they are good for everyone and that they are supported by everyone, and part of the results of a leadership depend on maintaining an alliance together».
Pistorius, the German defense minister, said there was no deadline at the moment for a possible deal on tanks anyway. It could therefore take days if not weeks before a decision is made, but according to US Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin, time is running out considering that the cold season is almost over, while Russia is probably preparing a new offensive.
