Today and tomorrow in the Czech Republic we vote for the second round of presidential elections: the ballot is between Petr Pavel, a retired army general who also had a long career in NATO, and Andrej Babis, a very wealthy businessman known for his populist political positions, former prime minister between 2017 and 2021.
As in Italy, also in the Czech Republic the president of the Republic has a mainly ceremonial role, but in recent years the disputed outgoing president, Milos Zeman, had repeatedly exceeded the boundaries of his powers and had used his influence to intervene heavily on life politics of the country, transforming himself into an extremely influential figure: this situation is likely to repeat itself, especially if Babis, who was an ally of Zeman, was the winner.
For the moment, however, the favorite is Pavel. Babis, given by the polls at a clear disadvantage, is trying to recover consensus by leveraging the fear that the war in Ukraine could also spread to the rest of Europe. In recent weeks he has radically changed the tone and arguments of his electoral campaign: he described himself as a pacifist who will do everything to avoid the Czech Republic’s involvement in the war and presented the positions of his opponent, a pro-European and in favor of supporting the Ukraine, as reckless and irresponsible. Czech analyst Miloš Gregor, among others, argued that Babis’ arguments are not too different from those of some pro-Russian European politicians.
Of the two candidates Babis is the most contested and discussed and his return to politics is one of the reasons why the presidential elections in the Czech Republic are attracting a lot of attention. As prime minister, he had led a right-wing, populist government that had been plagued by various scandals and controversies. Babis had been accused, among other things, of having disastrously managed the coronavirus pandemic and of illegally obtaining millions of euros of European funds for some of his personal businesses. For the latter charge he was tried and acquitted in early January.
In the first round of the presidential elections, last January 14, Babis had obtained a slightly lower percentage of votes than Pavel (34.9 per cent against 35.4 per cent), but then the gap widened: the largest poll recently made by Politico gives Babis 42 per cent and Pavel 58 per cent.
Recourse to the argument of the danger of war seems to have been the means chosen by Babis to try to recover consensus in a simpler and quicker way.
For example, Babis alluded to the possibility of refusing to adhere to one of the fundamental principles of NATO, the military alliance that includes part of Western countries and also the Czech Republic: that of the mutual defense mechanism in the event of an attack envisaged by the article 5 of the founding treaty of the alliance (if he were to win the elections, Babis would also become the commander in chief of the armed forces of the Czech Republic, as envisaged by the presidential appointment). During a televised debate, he argued that he would not send soldiers to defend Poland or other European countries in case they were attacked: “I want peace, I don’t want war,” said Babis, who added: “In no situation I would send our children or the children of our women to war.’
His declarations have been contested: in fact, Babis alluded to the possibility that the Czech Republic violates an international treaty which it is obliged to respect, having signed and ratified it, furthermore leveraging on a possibility considered very remote to date by all, i.e. that the Russia attacks a NATO member country.
After his statement, Marian Jurecka, the prime minister, stood publicly apologised with Poland and the other allied countries, reassuring them of the Czech Republic’s commitment to respect international agreements. Babis then softened his tone, claiming to have said those things because he “didn’t even want to imagine” the hypothesis of a “third world war”. In parallel with these statements, he then tried to undermine the credibility of his opponent, Pavel, accusing him of being a warmonger.
– Read also: What Articles 4 and 5 of the NATO treaty say
Compared to the election campaign for the first round, Babis has changed his arguments quite radically. In that case he had leveraged his past as prime minister to present himself as a reliable and experienced politician, for example by highlighting his closeness to pro-European leaders in favor of supporting Ukraine, such as French president Emmanuel Macron.
Meanwhile Pavel, a moderate and pro-European politician, has leveraged his long career as an army general to present himself as a reliable leader capable of managing crisis and conflict situations. He is insisting on his liberal and moderate values to present Babis as a threat to the stability of democracy in the Czech Republic: «The danger is that (if Babis wins) not only will we slide towards populism but we will risk deviating from the path we have followed in the last 30 years: democratic, western and pro-European”.
Petr Pavel (AP Photo/Petr David Josek)
