After an economic growth in Mexico estimated at around 3% for the past year, in 2023 a stagnation is expected that, in part, will be due to the expected contraction in the United States, which may impact remittances and exportsalerted the Center for Economic Studies of the Private Sector (CEESP).
In their weekly Executive Economic Analysis, the institution’s specialists assured that there are signs that a new stagnation may appear in the countrys, which reflects the timely estimates of the Inegi for the last months of the year.
For this reason, the CEESP economists stated that “the expected contraction in the world, especially in the United States, would have a negative impact on aggregate demand and the Gross Domestic Product of Mexico both through exports, and perhaps through fewer remittances destined for the consumption of Mexican households”.
The significant annual increases in economic activity that were registered in the country as of last August were mainly due to an arithmetic effect of comparison with a period of low activity in 2021, the institution explained.
That “led forecasts to rise to near 3% growth this year,” the analysis said.
Even though such a growth forecast is likelythe evolution of some indicators begins to suggest a new episode of stagnation in the last months of 2022which have begun to be noticed in the appropriate estimates of the Inegi for the last months of the year.
Also, since December of last year there has been a slowdown in consumption through credit cards, that had to do with an impact on purchasing power due to inflation.
To this was added that in November, remittances denominated in pesos fell at a real annual rate of 11.1%, after growth of just 0.1% in October 2022.
In the internal part, it is observed that the Mexican economy registers a slowdown in national consumption, as well as stagnation in investment, highlighted the CEESP analysis.
For this reason, the agency considered it urgent to “generate adequate economic conditions and practices so that the economy works better, with lower costs and greater productivity, in addition to having the correct incentives for investment.”
JM
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