China: 2022, demographic crisis and minimum GDP for 40 years
For the first time in over 60 years, the population in China has dropped, confirming in even clearer terms the question of the demographic crisis that is affecting the most populous nation on the planet. “At the end of 2022, the national population was 1,411 million”, writes the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing in a note, specifying that this is a “decrease of 0.85 million compared to the end of 2021”.
A historical record for the People’s Republic in the past year, accompanied by one of the worst collapses in economic growth for almost half a century: in 2022 the Pil grew 3.0%, missing the official target of “about 5.5%” and capping sharply from 2021 growth of 8.4%. Excluding the 2.2% expansion after the start of the pandemic in 2020, it is the worst result since 1976, the last year of the decennial Cultural Revolution that marked the Dragon’s economy.
Other December macro indicators, such as retail sales and industrial production, released alongside GDP data, beat expectations but remained weak.
According to official data, between October and December the Chinese GDP it grew 2.9% year-over-year, slower than the third quarter’s 3.9% pace. However, the rate beat the second quarter’s 0.4% expansion and market expectations of a 1.8% increase. On a quarterly basis, the Pil it stalled and stood at 0.0% in the fourth quarter, compared with a 3.9% growth in July-September.
Beijing last month he lifted the strict rules anti-Covid measures which had severely held back economic activity in 2022, but the easing has also led to a sharp increase in cases that economists say could hamper growth in the near term. “In 2022, the foundations of economic recovery are not solid as the global situation is still complicated and dire, while the triple domestic pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectations is still looming,” the national statistics office noted.
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