In 2023, the GDP in Italy will go from 1.9% to 0.9%
War, pandemic, inflation and global crisis: the European Commission has revised growth estimates downwards for this year and next year. In the Eurozone it will be 2.6% and 1.4% respectively, compared to the May forecast of 2.7% and 2.3%. In the European Union 2.7% and 1.5% according to the new Community estimates. Making an overview of the main countries: in Germania GDP growth this year will be 1.4%, next year 1.3%; in France by 2.4% and 1.4%; Spain 4% e 2,1%; Poland 5.2% (the highest level among large countries) and 1.5%.
While for the‘Italia the scenario is twofold: for this year the GDP will go from 2.4% to 2.9%, while for 2023 the panorama is more black. Growth will go from 1.9% to 0.9%. Thus in 2023 Italy will remain in the queue for growth rate in the euro area returning to the situation of 2019, when with a slim + 0.5% it recorded the lowest rate of GDP growth in the entire euro zone. Only Sweden in 2023 would achieve the most limited result: 0.8%.
Real GDP growth in 2022 to 2.9% benefits from a substantial carry-over effect from 2021
Going back to 2022, according to the European Commission’s forecast report, in the short term there will be a growth in production supported by the increase in service activity after the rise of almost all the restrictions related to Covid and a still robust production in the construction sector.
Real GDP growth in 2022 to 2.9% benefits from a substantial carry-over effect from 2021 and an upward revision of growth in the first quarter of 2022. However, the loss of real household purchasing power, the decline in business and consumer confidence, supply bottlenecks and rising costs of financing obscure the economic outlook.
GDP down in the EU, Gentiloni: “We are passing from a slowdown to a braking phase”
Paolo GentiloniCommissioner for the Economy, presenting the new EU estimates, declared: “All the risks indicated two months ago have come true: shock deriving from the unpredictable evolution of the energy markets, tighter financial conditions, growth deceleration in the US more evident, the closures in China due to the resurgence of Covid “.
The fact that the EU and the Eurozone do not enter recession as such does not mean that the situation need not worry and it is no coincidence that Gentiloni recalls that “this year’s growth is supported by the strong momentum gained from last year and by a better-than-expected first quarter. Economic activity in the rest of the year should no longer increase the annual growth figure. It could be said that the European economy is passing from a phase of slowing growth to a phase of braking “.
Gentiloni he noted that the prices of raw materials showed signs of easing in the face of a weak trend in global growth, however gas is an exception. At the end of June it was traded at a level of over 140 euros per megawatt hour, more than six times the price of a year earlier. Currently i gas prices they continued to rise to € 173 on 12 July.
On the contrary, the price of Brent crude oil it peaked in mid-June, only to decline following growing evidence of a slowdown in global demand. The oil futures curve underlying the EU forecast indicates prices only slightly higher over the forecast horizon than in spring. Aside from energy commodities, metal prices fell from their high levels in March, reflecting the slowdown in global demand.
I food prices they have declined in recent weeks, but are still up about 30% compared to the same period in 2021, with prices of cereals, such as wheat, hardest hit by the war in Ukraine.
Gentiloni reported that in this context, labor markets “continued to show strength.” In the first quarter of this year, the number of employees in the EU increased by 1.1 million, or 0.5% compared to the previous quarter. . The easing of the containment measures makes it possible to exit the job maintenance regimes. Meanwhile, unemployment continued to drop to 6.1% in May. ”
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