Confindustria: with a stop to Russian gas -2% GDP in 2022 and 2023
More bad news after the stinged by a thousand euros per family due to the war in Ukraine of which Cgia Mestre spoke yesterday and which today is taken up by all the newspapers. The possible blocking of natural gas imports from Russia, Italy’s main supplier in recent years, could have a very strong effect on the Italian economy, which is already weakened. Such a shock would cause a severe shortage of gas volumes for industry and services and an additional increase in energy costs. The total impact on GDP in Italy, in the 2022-2023 horizonis reputable in almost -2% on average per year. This is what emerges from the Confindustria flash situation, of which Il Messaggero writes.
In terms of gas volumes, the impact of a blockade must be assessed in the situation that would be created month by month, not in terms of aggregate annual consumption, warns Confindustria. The lack of supply, over the 12 months between April 2022 and March 2023, would be equal to 14 mmc, or 18.4% of Italian consumption (a share similar to that calculated in the last Def). According to this estimate, the gas shortage does not occur entirely in the months of peak consumption (between December 2022 and January 2023, however, 40% is concentrated), but is also spread over the preceding and subsequent months. The temperature limits recently imposed for public buildings only (-1 in winter, +1 in summer, excluding private individuals) do not improve the scenario much, being able to reduce annual consumption to a limited extent.
P.r as regards gas stocks, they are considered “very low”: the estimated evolution of the monthly gas supply, from April 2022, compared to the demand, depends very much on the hypothesized profile for stocks: a phase of accumulation of very low intensity in April-October, followed by a moderate decumulation between November and March . These assumptions imply a much greater net use of inventories than in the previous 12 months (-4.5 mmc, from -1.2), which complements the scarce supply.
Even assuming that, due to the lack of gas, only in the “energy-intensive” sectors would there be a reduction in activity (total or partial based on the “gas consumption / added value” ratio), Confindustria estimates a loss of value added in industry equal to 9 billion euros over the 12-month periodto which must be added that in services equal to another 9 billion. The total impact of the gas shortage on the Italian economy is therefore estimated at -1% of GDP between spring 2022 and winter 2023., an estimate close to that of the EU Commission. In the remaining 9 months of 2023, in which other alternative sources could be available (6 mmc), the shortage of supply would be lower and would involve only the industry, with an additional impact of approximately -0.4% on GDP. To all this must be added the impact on the economy that would derive from a potential further increase in the prices of energy commodities on international markets, as a consequence of the shortage of gas from Russia.
The calculations of the shock for the Italian economy. While Russia earns 14 billion with expensive fuel
The association of industrialists assumes that this happens for gas (over 200 euros / mwh from June 2022) and also for oil (almost $ 150 / barrel). By simulating the effects of these hypotheses with the econometric model, it appears that in 2022 the impact on GDP would be limited (-0.2%), because the price difference would only weigh in the second half of the year. In 2023, however, when prices would double compared to the ‘baseline’ scenario for the whole year, the impact on GDP would be much more significant (-2.2%).
The joke is that in the meantime Russia is making a profit. At least on the expensive fuel front. As reported by the newspaper, the minister of finance of Moscow, Anton Siluanov, yesterday spoke of an additional trillion rubles, about 13.7 billion euros, that Russia will collect this year from the sale of crude oil and gas. “We estimate that the additional revenues from hydrocarbons could get up to one trillion rubles, according to the forecasts drawn up with the Ministry of Economic Development, ”he said. And he made it clear that the extra resources will be used to finance the war in Ukraine. Money that will also be spent on “further payments” to pensioners, families with children and who have members participating in the “special operation” “.
Also because the war wanted by Putin, underlines the Corriere della Sera, it costs Russia 700 million a day. “Since February 24, the date of the beginning of the conflict, the Russian Federation has used 70% of its military strength in Ukraine conventional, with a daily economic commitment of around seven hundred million euros. These are numbers drawn up by Western analysis centers owned by NATO and the countries that are part of it “, writes the Corriere.” They give the measure of Moscow’s effort to subjugate Kiev “.
Long weekend of 2 June: 13 million Italians traveling and 1 billion spending at the table
Russia launches the Zircon missile. The secrets of Putin’s most terrifying weapon
Smartphone, 66% of Italians also use it in bed: we are now cyborgs
Salty coffee, it’s expensive-cup at the bar. Black jersey: Trento, Cuneo and …
Italy rescued from the 2022 World Cup: Mancini, Fifa ruling and .. HERE’S THE TRUTH
Government, Meloni: “I premier if more voted? Finally Salvini says so”. VIDEO
Enit and AMUR: Musica con Vista 2022 is underway
Banca Ersel, inauguration of the renovation project of the new headquarters
Subscribe to the newsletter