Btp, yield tripled
By dint of joking with fire, something serious happened: the 15-year BTP yield tripled within a year. And be careful because now we really risk the neck bone. In fact, while the enlarged majority punches on any subject, i markets – who will have many defects, but certainly not that of being caught unprepared – they understand that the air is pulling on Europe has changed and, in particular, on Italy. For this reason, from January onwards, well before outbreak from the warthey started selling the shares placed on the Ftse Eb. And now they are demanding much higher yields on government bonds.
The comparison is merciless. In February 2020, before the Coronavirus but also before the Recovery Plan European Union, an issue of 9 billion euros of securities, placed at a price of 99.513, with an annual gross yield at issue of 1.489%, the lowest ever on that deadline to date. The following year, still with the Covid that roared but with the now approved PNRR – and above all with the lightning rod Mario Dragons to Palazzo Chigi – here the placement had taken place at the price of 99.409, with a gross annual yield of 0.992%. In this case, the request, compared to a placement of 9 billion, was 100 billion.
Government bonds, watch out for the future
We come to yesterday: the Ministry from the Finances announced the results of the first tranche of the new one 15-year BTP expiring on 1 March 2038 with a placement of 5 billion and a gross annual rate of 3.305%. In short, a not indifferent alarm bell. Also because there are more 200 billion euros of securities which will mature between now and the end of the year and which need to be renegotiated. If the trend were to be confirmed, we would risk nasty surprises not so much on long-term bonds (some 10-year bonds yield 5%, therefore well above any possible market demand) but for short-term ones that may need an ancillary coupon to be considered “palatable“. We are short of breath, while the government is fighting over the beaches and the land registry. Be careful not to overdo it, though. The bill it could be very salty.
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