Finns and Swedes could no longer remain neutral

Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership is fast approaching. With the decisions referred to as ‘historic’ in Stockholm and Helsinki this week, the question arises: what do the newcomers bring with them? Is NATO getting stronger? Or are the risks increasing? Finland shares 1,300 kilometers of border with Russia.

Membership of both countries, which submitted their applications on Wednesday, must be approved by the thirty current NATO treaty partners. Turkey is in trouble. It wants to fight another row over Sweden’s refusal to extradite political opponents of President Erdogan – members of the Kurdish PKK and the Gülen movement – ​​and over ties with Kurdish fighters in Syria.

Erdogan is also angry about a Swedish arms embargo against Turkey. His obstruction also appears to be a way of fighting a feud with the US over the supply of US weapons systems.

The newcomers and other NATO members assume that they can talk to Erdogan, even though Turkey immediately blocked the start of the procedure on Wednesday. The US ambassador to NATO reacted laconically: “We have 73 years of experience dealing with differences of opinion”.

Even without Turkish protest, accession would take months. Until then, the aspiring members are not covered by NATO’s security guarantee. However, a number of NATO countries promised to support the newcomers in that phase as well, including the US and the United Kingdom.

How risky it is to provoke Russian President Putin with an imminent membership without actually being able to hide entirely under the NATO umbrella, remains to be seen. Membership is an affront to Russia, but Putin said he didn’t see it as a threat.

‘You are the cause. take a look in the mirror’

Sauli Niinisto, Finnish President, against President Putin

Russia has announced measures. Gazprom said it would no longer supply Finland with gas from Saturday. Finland is also counting on cyber-attacks and disinformation campaigns. Finnish President Sauli Niinistö said that if Putin wanted to know why his country is joining NATO, he should to look in the mirror.

Sweden and Finland are prosperous and democratic and for that reason alone they are welcome in NATO. In addition to being a defense alliance, the alliance is also an organization that has committed itself to standing up for ‘democracy, personal freedom and the rule of law’, according to the North Atlantic Treaty of 1949. With the accession of the two countries, the whole of Northern Europe will soon be member.

Finland and Sweden differ greatly in military profile and political tradition, partly because they had different experiences during World War II. Norway and Denmark tried to remain neutral, but were overrun by Nazi Germany. Finland was able to stop an invasion of the Soviet Union (1939-40) in the Winter War and later fought on the side of Germany. Sweden escaped the war because the Germans did not consider occupation necessary. After the war, Norway and Denmark sought support from other western countries. Norway felt safe only in association with strong naval forces, and ended up at NATO.

‘Friendship treaty’

Sweden was traditionally neutral, but also concerned about the fate of Finland. They had been one country until 1809, and Finland was more or less under the control of the Soviet Union after the war. It had to swallow a “friendship treaty” with Moscow and make reparations, but remained independent. Sweden did not want to lean too much to the west, because such a “provocation” against Moscow could also endanger Finland’s territorial integrity, wrote the former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt recently in Foreign Affairs† “Even if Swedish government leaders didn’t say it out loud, this was the main motive for Sweden’s policy of neutrality in the Cold War.”

Sweden armed itself. It built up an impressive air force and the navy, especially the submarine service, also had a good reputation. Stockholm, Bildt said, secretly collaborated with NATO and the US.

Also read: ‘Neutral Sweden just got lucky for 200 years’

After the implosion of the Soviet Union, the situation changed again. In 1995, Sweden and Finland gave up their neutrality by joining the European Union, but NATO membership remained taboo.

Sweden first reduced its armed forces after the Cold War, only to make larger investments after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, according to the report. analysts on website for security issues warontherocks†

Finland more or less maintained its defenses, but Helsinki also experienced years of severe cutbacks. The cornerstone of the Finnish defense is a combination of conscription with a large pool of reservists. That combination is cheap compared to a large professional army and the only way to affordably defend an immense but sparsely populated country.

Dutch Leopard Tanks

While most European countries abolished conscription and sold weapons, Finland bought weapons. For example, in 2014 Helsinki bought a hundred Leopard tanks from the Netherlands for 200 million euros. Finland spends 2 percent of its gross domestic product on defense, which means the country meets the NATO standard. Sweden wants to touch the standard in 2028.

Finland, warontherocks writes, has it all: money, trained men, modern equipment, defense industry and a population that is prepared to defend the country. Finland and Sweden are already working closely together, as is NATO member Norway.

They are also familiar with NATO practices from regular exercises and joint operations. Since the beginning of the war, they have been regular guests of the North Atlantic Council, NATO’s main political body. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called Sweden and Finland NATO members “without membership cards”.

Commentary: Sweden and Finland welcome to NATO, but it has risks

The accession of the two countries means that the three Baltic NATO member states, always wary of Russia, can be better defended and that Western interests in the strategically important arctic area are easier to defend. Just these weeks, the headquarters in Brussels are investigating how the defense of the eastern flank of NATO territory should be strengthened in the long run. Sweden and Finland will also play a role in this.

Moreover, with the accession, NATO will advance towards Russia – Finland is very close to Saint Petersburg, and the Baltic Sea will soon be surrounded by NATO countries. But Russia’s provocation is also limited: Sweden, following Norway’s lead, does not want to allow nuclear weapons or NATO bases on its territory. Finland is likely to refuse the deployment of nuclear weapons, but may host NATO units. Political decision-making went so quickly under the pressure of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he said Finnish ex-Prime Minister Alexander Stubb Thursday, that there was no time to accurately map out the military consequences of the historic upheaval.

A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of May 21, 2022