The large shares of the electorate won by Lula and Jair Bolsonaro have become an important asset for the duo’s allies in the states. Despite the impression of a game played in the presidential race, the gubernatorial races have gained great potential for twists and turns.
The scenario favors a bet on Lula and Bolsonaro as electoral cables in the races of the states. The numbers are in polls carried out by Quaest in São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio and Bahia – which gather almost half of the country’s votes.
In the São Paulo election, Bolsonaro appears as a powerful godfather to Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans). When the president’s support is cited, the former minister jumps from 14% to 28%. In the case of Fernando Haddad (PT), the situation is different: PT scores 39% with or without Lula’s support, since there is already a high level of identification between the two.
Lula demonstrates the ability to change the game in Minas. In the dispute for the government, Alexandre Kalil (PSD) goes from 30% to 43% when he is mentioned next to the PT, surpassing Romeu Zema (Novo). The current governor, who hitched a ride on Bolsonaro to win in 2018, loses almost half of his votes if he appears detached from the president.
In Rio, Governor Cláudio Castro (PL) anticipated the effort to link up with Bolsonaro and reaped some fruits. Even without his name mentioned with the president, he leads the first round and appears 11 points ahead of Marcelo Freixo (PSB) in the second. When the presidential candidates take the field, the picture changes. In a direct clash, Freixo has 40% with Lula’s support, against 37% of Castro with Bolsonaro.
Bahia is another example of the expected connection between the national election and state contests. Who dominates the race, with 67% of the votes, is ACM Neto (União Brasil), launched as an independent candidate. He loses 20 of those points with the arrival of Lula and Bolsonaro: PT Jerônimo Rodrigues shoots from 6% to 34%, while Bolsonarista João Roma goes from 5% to 10%.
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