Two possible scenarios to accelerate the energy transformation of our country and achieve independence from gas. This is what emerges from the study “Italy and energy dependence: diversifying sources and investing in renewables for a less constrained and more decarbonized future”. The survey is divided into two scenarios capable of anticipate the goals set for 2030 on decarbonisationbuilt by simulating a mix of interventions based on four levers main: the acceleration on the installation of renewables, the increase in biomethane production, the increase efficiency energy and the diversification of imports of gas.
“Green acceleration” scenario: predicts a high focus on interventions that allow a reduction from the request from gas naturalthrough a strong acceleration on renewables (in the next 3 years – 20 Gw / year), aggressive targets for the production of biomethane (8 bmc to 2030) and maintenance of a high rate of energy efficiency interventions (up to 1.5% annual rate).
Progressive growth scenario: based on the use of similar levers, but with a more progressive growth rate. In particular, the development of renewables is proceeding with a more moderate acceleration (from 2 to 15 Gw / year in the period 2022-2030), the target from production of the biomethane is more limited (3 bmc) and the rate of energy efficiency interventions reaches up to1%.
Claudio Arcudi, Accenture Italy Head of Energy & Utility he declares: “The new international context requires an acceleration of decarbonisation and energy independence. The scenario that foresees a strong increase in renewable energy and biofuel is a great opportunity for the competitiveness of our country system. Companies utilities and power they must create a virtuous ecosystem around onshore and offshore renewables, in particular wind power And photovoltaic. Investments must be part of a systemic approach to decarbonisation which is now possible thanks to digitalisation. The internet of things, artificial intelligence and big data will be the critical success factors of this new energy system. Accenture is an ecosystem player for implementation from the transition energy. It provides organizations with skills, assets, market experience and the possibility of drawing on the main foreign experiences “.
Marco Carta, Chief Executive Officer of Agici, adds: “The transformation of the global energy market imposes great challenges on the whole Country-System. Italy, paralyzed for too long by crossed vetoes, must quickly return to investing in infrastructure for energy security and decarbonisation. National and local institutions have the task of giving impetus to this transformation with firmness and foresight. The target is to change radically the approachfinally passing from a policy of not doing to one of doing “.
While both of them the scenarios propose solutions capable of achieving the decarbonisation objectives, the implementation of the first scenario would not only guarantee greater results in a shorter time, but would allow for a lower production and use of coal by granting a network of additional and advantageous connections for all.
Sandro Bacan – Accenture Innovation Lead comments: “The transformation process towards Italy’s energy independence outlined in our study may represent an opportunity for the country to accelerate the energy transition. The elements enabling necessary for this transformation are of a regulatory, commercial and innovation nature technological. With reference, in particular, to the technological aspects, it is essential that the acceleration path towards the renewable is accompanied by an adaptation of the network infrastructures, leveraging on data for optimize the investments and the accuracy of the forecasts on the producibility of the plants, in order to maximize the use of renewables “.
Compared to the study presented, Accenture suggests looking at the scenario “Green Acceleration”, Which can lead to a cumulative reduction in gas demand of 190 bcm in the period 2022-2030, guaranteeing a net cumulative reduction of CO2 of 68 Mt. This approach allows the achievement of the decarbonisation objectives in advance of 2030.
The acceleration on renewables, together with the other levers, allows the achievement of independence from Russian gas by 2023, minimizing coal-fired thermoelectric production and not necessarily requiring the use of new regasification infrastructures and the expansion of the capacity of existing gas pipelines .