(Image Source: La Presse)
China, i lockdown they created problems for the production and the supply chain with an expected impact in the first two quarters of the year
The fear of Covid returns to the streets of Shanghai, also alerting Pechino, and the domestic economy suffers a drastic fallout: according to the rating agency Fitch China is exposed to a high risk of a slowdown, which will lead the GDP in 2022 from 4.3% to 4.8%. On the national scenario, the increasingly widespread lockdowns to contain the contagion and the consequent production and supply chain problems pay off. The rating agency in fact expects a contraction of GDP between the first and second quarters before the economy starts to recover in the second half of the year
“Fitch Ratings cut its forecasts for growth by Chinese GDP in 2022 to 4.3%, from 4.8%. Meanwhile, the agency revised its 2023 growth forecast slightly higher, to 5.2%, from 5.1%, on the assumption that the government will phase out its ‘zero dynamic-Covid’ policy over the course of the year. next year “, reads the note.
“The policies adopted by the authorities since mid-March to contain the spread of thel Omicron strain Covid-19 has led to a prolonged lockdown in Shanghai’s major shopping center and increased restrictions on public health and mobility across China (A + / Stable) more broadly, “notes Fitch.
“The impact on the economic activity of the perturbation linked to Covid-19 pandemic it became evident in March, with retail sales declining 3.5%, the first y / y decline since mid-2020. Selected sub-components contracted even more severely; for example, catering fell by 15.6% year-on-year. Other areas of activity, including industrial production and investments in fixed assets, have also slowed significantly, as health and movement controls have disrupted national supply chains and the availability of manpower “, concludes the agency. rating.
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