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In uncertain times, France opted for continuity on Sunday. Emmanuel Macron is according to an Ipsos forecast with 58.8 percent of the vote re-elected as president. Not only in France, but also at European level, this result averted a major change of course. For Macron’s nationalist-populist challenger Marine Le Pen advocated such a radically different EU policy that the effects of her election would be felt across the continent.
While Le Pen argued for a “Europe of nations” within which France would operate more sovereignly, Macron will focus in the coming years on strengthening the sovereignty of the EU as a whole. And while Le Pen wanted to approach the nationalist governments of Poland, Hungary and possibly Russia outside the EU, Macron values the tightened ties with Germany.
The President of the European Council Charles Michel reacted with relief: he said that Europe “can count on France for another five years”. And German Chancellor Olaf Scholz tweeted Macron’s voters have raised a “clear voice in favor of Europe”. Relief also prevailed among the members of Macron’s center party La République en Marche. French flags were danced, kissed and waved at an election event under the Eiffel Tower in Paris. Daft Punk’s ‘One More Time’ blared through the speakers.
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Also read this profile of Macron: The French find Macron charming and arrogant, but also a good crisis manager
Yet the president begins his second quinquennat not with clear skies. On Sunday, a higher percentage of French people than ever (41.2 percent) voted for a nationalist-populist candidate. Turnout was also exceptionally low: almost one in three French people chose to stay at home in the second round – the lowest percentage in decades. Also, some of the voters who did vote for Macron did so only to prevent Le Pen from winning.
Macron is aware of his vulnerable position: in his victory speech, he spoke about the “doubts and divisions” that exist and called for solidarity. “From now on, I am no longer the candidate of one camp, but the president of everyone.” To ease tensions, he previously announced that he more in conversation will deal with citizens and local authorities. He also said he was willing to review his much-criticized pension reform. To entice green voters, he promised that his prime minister would be directly responsible for climate policy.
golden mountains
Not all French will be convinced. The distrust of the French people towards ‘politics’ has increased considerably in recent years, according to all kinds of polls† Macron has fueled this mistrust by failing to deliver on a number of promises. Because in 2017 he also promised golden mountains in the field of governance culture, pensions and climate, but in practice these were hardly realized.
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Also read: Five years of Macron: President des riches fought through crisis after crisis
It is therefore quite possible that some of the voters who stayed at home or voted for Macron with a proverbial clothespin on their nose, will make it difficult for the president in the parliamentary elections in June. Because if the president loses his majority there, Macron will have to work with a second party, which in the case of such a so-called cohabitation the Prime Minister can deliver. In such a situation, the president loses an important part of his political clout.
This second party could have a significant impact on policy over the next five years, and the losers are well aware of that. Le Pen said on Sunday evening that “anyone who has the courage to oppose Macron” should vote for her party in June. Election tensions will therefore continue to sizzle in France for a while.
French elections page 4-5
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of April 25, 2022
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