Ukraine, diplomacy’s last resort to avoid a real invasion of Russia
Ukraine it’s not exactly the ideal place for maritime metaphors, but the feeling is really that of being in front of the last beach. Diplomacy tries to play its last cards to avoid a conflict that could take on an unpredictable scope and with the involvement of different actors, leading among other things to long-range geopolitical consequences not only in Eastern Europe but also within the complex triangle. United States-Russia-China. The feeling is that from various fronts attempts are being made to cheer up the climate and reach a compromise acceptable to all, so that no one is completely victorious or even completely defeated. But if the attempt ran aground, nothing would be left but the clash.
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The first step towards a diplomatic solution, among the different ones that have been taken in the past few hours, is the one taken by Then. “We have decided to send written responses because we take efforts to make progress in our political dialogue with Russia very seriously,” said the NATO secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, while stressing that Russia is continuing its military gathering not only on the border with Ukraine but also in Belarus. Even if the Kremlin justifies its movements around Minsk in another way. Yes, because a constitutional referendum is being held in Belarus in the coming weeks and Putin could also accept requests for Aleksandr Lukashenko and leave a contingent in place to avoid the risks of a new crisis like the recent one in Kazakhstan.
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Ukraine, China tries to mediate between Russia and the US
Another passage in the last few hours is also interesting, namely the phone call between the US Secretary of State Antony Blink and the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi. “All parties involved in the Ukrainian conflict must take Russia’s fears and concerns seriously,” said the Beijing diplomat. Wang then urged the parties to “keep calm” and refrain from feeding tensions and allegations and this in order to ensure a de-escalation of the crisis. Regional security, he argued again, cannot be guaranteed through the strengthening or expansion of military blocs.
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The interesting passage, beyond what Wang said in favor of notebooks, is the fact that China is looking for a role as intermediary in the tensions between Washington and Moscow. The reality is that Beijing, perhaps most of all, fears a direct confrontation, especially in the immediate future. There China in fact, he would have asked the Kremlin to wait for March for any operations and would experience an immediate invasion as a sort of betrayal. United States agents provocateurs to crack in the bud the Sinorussian alliance? Beijing has suspicion or at least shows it does. Hoping that the Ukrainian situation does not divert attention from its Winter Olympic Games.
Ukraine, Normandy format reunion as Europe shudders for gas
Another relevant signal comes from the meeting held in Paris, where the advisers of the heads of state and government of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine. Namely the countries of the so-called Normandy format. All four diplomats expressed their support for “unconditional compliance with the ceasefire and full adherence to measures to strengthen the cease-fire of 22 July 2020, regardless of the differences on other issues relating to the implementation of the Minsk agreements “, as reported by a note from the Elysée.
Emmanuel Macron he is particularly active on the front of relations with Moscow, also given his rotating presidency of the European Union which will last until 30 June next. It is no coincidence that he will have a telephone conversation with Putin tomorrow. For once, in short, it seems that Europe can play some diplomatic role. Provided that the attempt to lower tensions is successful, which still has to be demonstrated.
Ukraine, a Georgia scenario as a compromise: independent republics of Donetsk and Lugansk
Yet the idea of what could be a compromise acceptable to all is gaining ground. Basically one “scenario Georgia“, perhaps without the need for a real conflict. We refer to the self-declaration of independence of the Republic of Donetsk and of Republic of Lugansk. After the hypothesis was supported by the Communist Party, now also United Russia has taken concrete steps in this direction, although until recently it did not seem to be enough. In 2008 it had done the same in Georgia, recognizing the independence of Abkhazia e South Ossetia.
In this scenario, a limited military intervention or even a simple political move, perhaps accompanied by a blitz in the Crimea, may be sufficient to try to establish a land bridge towards the Crimea, the peninsula that it annexed in 2014. This would require, as explained by the Economist, the capture of about three hundred kilometers of territory along the Mar d’Azov, including the key Ukrainian port of Mariupol, to the Dnieper River.
It could be a solution that is acceptable to everyone. Ukraine it would “officially” lose two segments of territory that it hasn’t controlled for years, but it would avoid a large-scale invasion without completely submitting to Moscow. The United States they should not make a promise not to let Kiev join NATO in the future. In turn, NATO would not lose momentum, indeed it could perhaps welcome the entry of Sweden and Finland. And finally, Putin could make the armed forces retreat perhaps after a limited blitz by presenting as a victory the official enlargement of the Russian security zone, albeit not responding to the whole Ukraine.
Without compromise, all that remains is the clash. The perplexities about Italy’s position
But balance is delicate, balancing may work as well as may not work. Also because other less conciliatory declarations come along with the diplomatic moves. There Then, for example, raises the bar and says the Russia “It should withdraw its forces from Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, where they are deployed without the consent of these countries”. While the European Central Bank warned European lenders with significant exposure in Russia to prepare for the imposition of international sanctions against Moscow should it invade Ukraine.
What all of Europe but also large sections of the Italian political and business world would like to avoid at all costs. This is also demonstrated (and above all) by the meeting between Putin and Italian companies which took place on Wednesday and which raised more than one eyebrow to Brussels it’s at Washington. Italy is considered, as often happens, to be wandering. And certainly distracted, as she tries to envy the next tenant of the Quirinale. Not pro-Russian, perhaps.
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