The rebound of the economy in 2021 was successful and 2022 will be the year of central banks
The last 12 months have certainly not gone smoothly on the pandemic front: due to the resurgence of cases, governments have been forced to new restriction measures who have had a impact on consumption and they have at some moments the pace of GDP was slowed down.
Not only that, the new variants, Delta first, then Omicron, have repeatedly undermined investor confidence. And bottlenecks in supply chains have resulted in one globally rush of inflation, creating a new headache for central banks and blurring the optimism due to the launch of vaccination campaigns.
The rebound of the economy is still successful and at this point 2022 will be the year of central banks, since in the coming months they will begin to tighten their monetary policy, reducing the aid granted to families and businesses but also leaving several questions about the possible consequences.
2021, an economic balance sheet
The beginning of the year opens atI teach about uncertainty due to the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, fears over the political situation in the United States after the assault of a group of demonstrators on Capitol Hill and the World Economic Forum which accused countries of ignoring the dangers of a pandemic for years, with possible long-term repercussions on the global economy.
5 la World Bank publishes a report in which it revises downward the growth estimates of world GDP which in 2021 should grow by 4% instead of the 4.2% forecast. Pessimism leaks from Washington, mainly due to fears for the new wave of infections from Covid-19 and warns: there will be a recovery only after a massive vaccination campaign from the virus.
In China meanwhile, the 2020 data record Beijing’s GDP has continued to grow even in the year of the pandemic, avoiding the recession (+ 2.3%) as it leads the Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchanges to set new records.
The 6th is the day of Capitol Hill. A group of pro-Trump protesters storm the Congress building. The widespread fear is of a collapse of the American lists which, after that of March 2021, had regained the lost ground. Fears erased the next day when investors ignored political tensions altogether and confident of new economic stimulus brought Wall Street on new records, with the Nasdaq exceeding 13,000 points for the first time.
The warnings of the Fed which in the previous hours had foreseen a return to ‘normal life’ only in the second half of the year, because the first part of 2021 will be characterized by weak growth and fears of new closures.
On the 14th the president of the United States, Joe Bidenannounces a new 1.9 trillion stimulus plan dollars to revive the economy. A ‘safeguard plan’, says Biden, to support the lowest incomes. 19 is the day of the alarm of the World Economic Forum, which in its Global risk report accuses: for 15 years the alarm on the risks associated with a pandemic has been ignored, now the effects risk weighing on the business world, of work and on the younger generations which have hit two global economic crises.
On the 21st, the European Central Bank warns: the resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic puts the recovery at risk and economic activity could also decline in the first three months of 2021. Frankfurt confirms the estimate of Eurozone GDP growth but she also says she is ready to adapt all her tools if necessary: ”Nothing can be excluded”. Christine Lagarde leaves the rates unchanged, as well as the size and duration of the Pepp, while announcing that the purchase program for the 1,850 billion euro pandemic emergency will remain in force until March 2022.
February, lights at the end of the tunnel
Twenty-eight days marked by a recovery of confidence. The first reopenings bring oil to pre-Covid levels, theEurozone sees the light at the end of the tunnel‘and Italy is able to see it stronger than others also thanks to the good impact on the international level of the appointment of Mario Draghi as Prime Minister. Stock exchanges are seeing ups and downs, but continue to break new records.