Silk Road, from the great opportunity to the great threat
In 2013, when it was launched, it evoked only ancient and romantic dusty roads. Adventurous and fascinating links between West and East. Today, however, just evoking it arouses worried reactions and provokes pressure from the United States. The Silk Road, or rather Belt and Road Initiative, has transformed in a few years from “great opportunity” to “great risk”. At least in the way it is perceived by Washington and consequently by more and more European governments. As well as by the European executive itself, the EU Commission led by Ursula von der Leyen.
Italy knows this well, given that it is the only G7 country to have signed up to join the Beijing project, announced by Xi Jinping from Kazakhstan in its land form and from Indonesia in its maritime form. Yet our country has gone from the pre-signing acceleration of the memorandum of understanding between the Gentiloni government and the Conte I government to the partial reversal of the Conte II government, which then resulted in the total reversal of the Draghi government, which with golden power is pushing Chinese companies away. by Italian strategic (and sometimes even non-strategic) interests, even opening up to a review of the March 2019 agreement, however non-binding and therefore already the victim of a downgrade in fact.
Alternative projects to the Silk Road, from the US to the EU via Asia
And Europe is moving to produce alternative plans, imitating what has been done by the United States but also by other Asian middle powers such as Japan and India. In particular, the EU commission has launched the so-called Global Gateway plan. A program worth 300 billion distributed over the next 5/6 years and up to 2027. “With the Global Gateway we are taking a step further to support investments and infrastructures in the rest of the world. Countries need trusted partners to achieve sustainable projects, marked by high transparency and good governance. We want to show that a democratic approach based on values can address global challenges “, declared von der Leyen presenting the project.
It is significant that the Commission has placed it in direct relationship and competition with China. “Between 2013 and 2018, European Member States were the number one provider of development aid in the world. Our development aid is on a par with China’s Silk Road. But the modalities are different: China lends, we lend, and in addition to this we also promote private investments “, said Commissioner of the International Partnership Jutta Urpilainen. The project therefore includes some key words such as democratic values and high standards, good governance and transparency, equal partnerships, green, clean and safe infrastructures.
For some, these are ties and snares that will actually make investments and their deployment more complicated, because they are subject to political / ethical / moral evaluations. Laces and laces that Beijing does not have. And above all, being the only entity involved in bilateral negotiations with the countries that are part of the initiative, it has a much greater and more flexible decision-making capacity than the multilateral plans announced as a “response” to the Belt and Road.
Also because over time the projects created in this sense are wasted. One of these is for example the Blue Dot Network, an initiative formed in November 2019 by the United States, Japan and Australia to provide assessment and certification of infrastructure development projects around the world on measures of financial transparency, environmental sustainability and development impact. economic, with the aim of mobilizing private capital to invest abroad. A project initially led by the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Australia.
It never really took off and then essentially merged into the Build Back Better World announced by Joe Biden during the G7 on June 12, 2021. An anti-Beijing project that promises to facilitate multi-trillion-dollar investments in infrastructure needed by developing countries. development by 2035. The initiative aims to catalyze financing for quality infrastructure from the private sector and will encourage private sector investments that support “climate, health and safety, digital technology, and equity and ‘gender equality’.
For the moment the promises remain rather vague, while the acronyms multiply. Among these is the Supply Chain Resilience Inititative, launched by Japan and India to try to reduce the economic and commercial overdependence accumulated towards China. And then, precisely, there is the Global Gateway, within which the European Fund for Sustainable Development + (Efsd +), the financial arm of Ndici-Global Europe will make available up to 135 billion euros for guaranteed investments for infrastructure projects between 2021 and 2027 while up to 18 billion euros will be made available as a grant, funding from the EU budget and from European financial and financial institutions for development has up to 145 billion euros in planned investment volumes.
On the other hand, skepticism towards China is also growing in the Old Continent. Without Angela Merkel, the leader closest to Beijing in recent years, the new nascent German government has approved a program in which Beijing is critically cited on various dossiers. Merkel herself spoke of “naivety” in her approach to the People’s Republic and now it is expected that Germany may turn to a different attitude that is also capable of dragging part of Europe with it. For example, Lithuania, which allowed the opening of a de facto Taiwanese embassy in Vilnius, with Beijing responding by recalling the ambassador and sending a junior official to replace it. In fact, blocking commercial cooperation.
Italy is moving on an insidious ridge, on the eve, among other things, of the year of tourism and culture Italy-China 2022 which now risks the flop due to the pandemic recovery. It risks not leaving due to the absence of direct flights between the two countries other than those operated for resident entrepreneurs. Meanwhile, the Draghi government continues to block Chinese projects in Italy. Waiting to understand if at the multilateral level an alternative project to the Chinese one can really take hold. Meanwhile, two other African countries have just joined the Silk Road in a bilateral forum in which Xi Jinping promised one billion doses of Covid vaccine to the continent.
