Istat, investments up by 15.7%. The rush to inflation will continue into 2022 as well
Istat raises growth estimates compared to what emerged in June, sustained GDP growth is expected in the two-year period 2021-2022: + 6.3% this year e + 4.7% next. The photograph comes from the report ‘Perspectives for the Italian economy years 2021-2022’.
The increase in GDP – explains the institute – it will be determined mainly by the contribution of domestic demand net of inventories (respectively +6.0 and +4.4 percentage points in the two years) which would be associated with a lower contribution of net foreign demand (+0.3 percentage points in both years). The stocks, on the other hand, would provide a nil contribution.
Investments will support the recovery with greater intensity this year (+ 15.7%) compared to 2022 (+ 7.5%). Consumption by resident families and ISPs will also show a marked increase (+ 5.1% and + 4.8%). The scenario presented takes into account the effects of the interventions envisaged by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (Pnrr), the still expansive orientation of monetary policy and the absence of significant measures to contain social and productive activities linked to the health emergency.
With regard to inflation, the deflator of resident household expenditure it will increase by 1.8% this yearor, affected by the current phase of acceleration in inflation which is expected to continue in 2022 (+ 2.2%). While on the facing employment, the evolution measured in terms of AU, will follow the improvement in economic activity with a more marked increase in the current year (+ 6.1%) compared to 2022 (+ 4.1%). The trend in the rate of unemployment it will reflect the gradual normalization of the labor market, with an increase in 2021 to 9.6% and a reduction in 2022 to 9.3%.