Political analysis is not wishful thinking; the analyst puts his ear close to the ground to hear the sound of the herd that is on its way, even if it is far away, and, look, the herd is not far away. Political analysis is like the canary that miners take with them into the mine: the fragility of the canary’s lung is its strength; he kicks warning of the dangers to come.
Bolsonaro is doing well, thanks. Autocrats need to be reelected to kill democracy once and for all, teach us Ortega and Orbán. Bolsonaro’s fall in popularity is the biggest triumph at the hands of opposition Democrats, who, on the other hand, seem to have little band together to confront him, which strengthens Bolsonaro. Chapa Lula-Alckmin would help to signal that this is an election about Bolsonaro, not about the others and their historical nitpicking.
Bolsonaro advances his herd with the open gate left by the Legislative and STF. Within a week, the STF crushes its own jurisprudence on privileged jurisdiction of 2018: it created a case-by-case exception benefiting, in the end, the president’s son. What was supposed to be a predictable court in the face of chaos becomes a court to ignore itself in the name of chaos.
The legislature passes the cattle, approving without coordinated opposition the future minister of the STF, who ordered the police to silence critics of the government (see requests for a police inquiry based on the National Security Law); which watched the president defend the freedom to use medicine without efficacy for Covid and whose AGU defended that it was ok for the State to commemorate the military coup in an official note. And, on top of that, it wants to pass the anti-terrorism law to silence civil society.
The beautiful but empty sentences of André Mendonça in favor of democracy in his hearing, on the one hand, clashed with his legal practice in government and, on the other, they sound like a siren song enchanting a Senate that is not very fond of actually prosecuting; a chant high enough to drown out the sound of the herd passing by. Bolsonaro, the president of the center is doing well, thank you.
LINK PRESENT: Did you like this text? Subscriber can release five free hits of any link per day. Just click on the blue F below.