ROME, NOV 28 – If China did not have stringent restrictive measures on circulation and travel in force, it would have up to an average of 630,000 new infections from Covid-19 every day without more effective vaccinations and specific treatments, according to a calculation model developed by Peking University mathematicians for the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Ccdcp), cited by some media outlets, such as Reuters and the Guardian. According to what the media write, Chinese scholars have based themselves on the figures relating to the spread of the coronavirus in August in countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain, France and Israel, assuming the adoption of the same countermeasures adopted by those countries in China. The worst case, that of over 630,000 cases per day, refers to the hypothesis that Beijing chooses the anti-Covid policy practiced in the United States. It would drop to 454,000 if it adopted the measures in force in France and over 275,000 if the model were the British one. “The estimates reveal the concrete possibility of a colossal epidemic that would overload the health system in an unsustainable way”, reads the report cited by the Guardian. “From our findings – continue the recommendations of the Chinese scholars – – a clear warning derives that, for the moment, we are not ready to embrace ‘reopening’ strategies, which rely only on the hypothesis that vaccinations induce herd immunity , as some Western countries claim them “. (HANDLE).