It’s not a boom, it’s not a wave, but the number of deaths by Covid in São Paulo has increased again. There is not much attention given because it is a rise from 60 victims per day to 70. In the rest of Brazil, the improvement has lost strength. The rate of slaughter is somewhere between a slight drop and almost stability.
The situation in São Paulo is worse, according to official records (that is, if underreporting has not increased in other states). Since the end of October, he has ceased to lose his temper. The fiction of the “zero death” day, trumpeted about two weeks ago, is now even more evident. It was rash propaganda nonsense, a statistical error, and a misinterpretation of administrative records.
The number of deaths in São Paulo was still 300 a day at the end of July, it had been 800 a day in April. It is understood, therefore, that few people pay attention to the recent problem, especially because there has been saturation with the subject for some time and because the vaccine gives a greater sense of security. But it is also understandable why one in nine municipalities in São Paulo have also canceled the 2022 street carnival. The epidemic is not over yet.
The increase in the number of deaths is not surprising. Since October, almost all agglomeration restrictions have ended. The football stadiums are full, although public transport in the metropolitan region of São Paulo is still with a movement 30% lower than normal (or, at least, 30% lower than registered in October 2019). What will happen when trains and buses are again as crowded as before, “AP”, Before the Pandemic? By the way, are they going to fill up again or has life in cities changed?
Carnival is far away, but the first Christmas with vaccine is right around the corner. Until then, the situation may improve, including vaccination. The campaign has been a success, a demonstration of the capacity of the national immunization system and a sign of hope as Brazilians take the injections despite the monstrous government.
However, despite this progress, the disease persists. In the state of São Paulo, 99.7% of people aged 12 and over took the first dose; 87% are fully vaccinated; 10% took the booster dose. The daily number of new ICU admissions continues to fall. They are around 320 a day. At the end of July, there were 1,200. In April, they passed 3,000 a day.
In Brazil, excluding São Paulo, 87% of those over 12 years old took dose 1; 68.8% are vaccinated. It’s another world, of course. The immediate risk is less, but the virus still circulates and kills.
By Christmas, vaccination will have advanced even further. At the moment, in São Paulo and in Brazil, more booster doses are applied per day than doses 1. But the end of the year of meetings and travels is an occasion for the spread of the virus. The country needs to get to the holiday season with vaccination coverage as complete as possible. It can reduce the risk much more. Who knows, there might be Carnival, although it’s weird to think about Carnival in this devastated country.
Countries in Europe are going through worrying outbreaks, but that’s not quite the reason to turn the yellow light on here. The balance of epidemics is now very different. Brazil was much more devastated by contaminations and deaths, has more and more extensive vaccinations and started giving injections much later. For better or worse, we may have more people resistant to the virus, at least for the moment. This is no reason to relax and give a chance to the chance of a mutation: we are in a pandemic and a mutant could come from Europe to Brazil in 12 hours.
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