In retrospect, after 18 months, what happened seems almost impossible. Self Nicholas Taleb he used the metaphor of black Swan” to describe the events of 2008-2009 and the subsequent financial crisis, an even more incredible comparison should be found for tell the Coronavirus pandemic from the point of view of the markets. Looking back, one is almost stunned: we recorded one loss on the Ftse Mib of 17% on 12 March 2020, only three days after the collapse of more than 11%. Two of the three worst sessions on the Milan Stock Exchange took place in March last year.
We saw the oil traded at negative rates, which didn’t even seem possible. But on the other hand, with the means of transport stopped all over the world, with the planes parked in the hangar except for those appointed to send aid and respirators to this or that country, what could be expected?
Today the situation is decidedly different: the vaccines, the interventions of governments and central banks, the feeling that the “new normal“Can still work, ha reported the Ftse Mib even to levels higher than those of the pre-pandemic, flirting with the all-time highs of the period prior to the mortgage crisis subprime. In 18 months, the main index of the Milanese price list has earned over 18.4% (and over 40% if you take the very black days of early March).
And therefore, the bag tells a story, to those who want to listen to it, who try to explain how the world has changed, which are the sectors that are still under stress today and which ones have managed to find an even better size than the one they occupied before the Coronavirus.
Leafing through thelist of 40 companies that make up the Ftse Mib you can appreciate, for example, the leap of Poste Italiane, which has grown by almost 25% in the past 18 months. And the reason is quite simple to understand: the exponential increase in parcels conveyed, partnerships even outside the borders, the increase in financial services have made the game of the company led by Matteo Del Fante. The leap of Industrial Name, which increased its value by over 50% thanks to the corporate decisions of new divisions in the defense sector.
Between performance more brilliant there is also that of Banco Bpm, which, in addition to significant results from an economic point of view, continues to be the pulsating center of the so-called “third pole”, an alternative to Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo. Even if Piazza Meda was able to count on the speculative expectations of the operators for a take-over by UniCredit.
The bank led by Carlo Messina instead it remains out of this investigation because it has – further – increased its size with the acquisition of where. The lender headed by Andrea Orcel, on the other hand, it has lost 10% of its value, waiting to deliver those blows (Mps? Carige? Banco Bpm?) that will give him back the “contender” stripes of Intesa Sanpaolo.
The Italians then rediscovered themselves prudent and “ants” during the pandemic. This explains the remarkable growth of companies such as Banca Generali (+30%), Finecobank (+60%). E Mediobanca, who has decided to bet very strongly on wealth management, recorded a increase of more than 20%. The same General, although many feared that insurance would be under stress due to the increase in payment claims, he saw increase its stock market value by almost 10%.
The companies related to the extraction of the hydrocarbons. Eni (-8%) and above all Saipem (-40%) pay for the terrible crisis that has hit the world of oil.
Although gasoline prices have returned to pre-crisis levels, tourism still faces very heavy restrictions which, for example, prevent planes from making all those long-haul flights that mean huge quantities of fuel on board. The story that the stock market tells is that of an economy that is restarting, that believes in it, that returns to bite the brake. Let’s hope that autumn doesn’t bring some nasty surprises, it’s no longer time for “horror” stories.