Marine Le Pen does not break through in the French regional teams as predicted by all the polls, especially in the maxi region of the south on which the Rassemblement National had staked everything. But it is not the only surprise of the last round of the polls before the 2022 presidential elections: the traditional right, the Républicains, given for dying, are instead in the lead and establish themselves as the most voted party at the national level, just ahead of the bloc. of the gauche. At around 19%, the extreme right-wing lepenist is detached. It does not take off, but this was rather expected, La République en Marche by Emmanuel Macron, who is not in government of any region and shows that in 5 years it has not managed to take root in the territory. The most sensational figure of the first round – the ballots are scheduled for next Sunday – however, is that of abstention, which according to forecasts rises to a record level, between 66.1% and 68.6%, according to the various institutes. One French out of 3 voted, a negative record that broke the previous one, that of 2010 which had seen 53.67% at the regional polls. “It is particularly worrying,” admitted Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin.
Out of the pandemic, with these regional elections postponed by three months to try to avoid a collapse in participation, the French in short are still rejecting the lepenist adventure and rewarding traditional politics, the parties of the neo-Galilist right and the left, which are returning to dominate the country. A need for reflection also for Macron, who sees his creation, La République en Marche, in government but absent from the territory. For the president, the company is now reviving its project to be able to stay at the Elysée. In almost all regions, the outgoing candidates of a country governed, at a territorial level, by the traditional right and left are in the lead. The big surprise are undoubtedly the Républicains, who had been hit at the beginning of the election campaign by the escape of Thierry Mariani, who presented himself with the Le Pen party in the region where the Rassemblement National was favored (Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur) and that was voted less than Marion Maréchal, Marine’s granddaughter, 5 years ago. The fate of the region traditionally more favorable to Le Pen, that of Marseille and Nice, will be decided on Sunday with the ballot between Mariani and the outgoing Musélier, with strong possibilities of convergence of a fate in the Republican front on the candidate of the moderate right. Muselier and Xavier Bertrand, great winner in the Hauts-de-France, north of Paris, where he literally tore up the opponent of the Rassemblement National (47% against 23%) are the two men who seem destined to lead the destinies of the right in the next months. A year during which the possibility of a duel for the Elysée different from what has been previously believed could emerge: not an encore of the 2017 Macron-Le Pen, but a challenge between the outgoing president and the representative of the neo-Galilists, between the “New” policy of the president and the “old” of the neo-Gaullists.
For Marine Le Pen, who had seemed very confident in recent days, with triumphal accents during her visits to the territory, difficult moments are looming if the collapse of the party’s consensus is confirmed, which would take even 10 points less than the 2015 regional ones. A result in total contradiction with what has been repeated in recent days by the polls. Already this evening, the first comments of the analysts are oriented towards the concept of a “Le Pen no longer inevitable in the race for the Elysée” and “a crippled Macron, who will probably be forced to begin the long race for re-election with a substantial reshuffle. of government “.