According to a dossier, cases are increasing exponentially. Sebastiani: “A return to the growth of the average curve is expected during the next week”
Rome – The virus runs. More and more. And there is no sign of decreasing the tendency towards an increase in infections which, especially in recent weeks, has picked up even more speed. All this while, as we have seen from the images from various Italian cities, the nightlife goes crazy, they can be seen assembly scenes everywhere. In addition, there is a lack of respect for the most elementary and basic rules for dealing with the epidemic. Starting with the use of the mask which, after a year, still many have not understood how it must be fixed.
In Italy, in terms of cases of coronavirus infection, we are fast approaching three million: to date there are 2,925,265, considering the latest increase of 17,455 new positives, according to data provided by the Ministry of Health. The Covid-19 epidemic in Italy is in an exponential phase of increase, with a doubling time of about 5 days, lower than that recorded in October, probably due to the circulation of variants. This is what emerges from the analyzes carried out, at national level, by the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for the Applications of Calculation ‘Mauro Picone’ of the National Research Council (Cnr-Iac), relating to the curve of the percentage of positives with respect to molecular swabs and that of the number of patients who enter intensive care units every day.
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“The percentage of positives compared to molecular swabs quantitatively describes the circulation of the SarsCov2 virus but – observes Sebastiani – unfortunately in our country it has undergone an exponential increase in recent weeks, and approximately every 5 days it doubles its increase. With the data for next week we will be able to have a more accurate estimate of the doubling time ». The situation, continues the expert, “is identical for the curve of admissions to intensive care, which instead quantifies the pressure that the circulation of the virus exerts on health facilities.
It should be noted that, in the analogous initial exponential phase of the second wave, in the first three weeks of October 2020, the doubling time was about 7 days. The fact that the doubling time is now lower than in October is compatible with the greater diffusivity of some of the variants of the virus currently circulating in our country “. With regard to the deaths, the mathematician notes that “from the analysis of the percentage of the weekly variation in incidence, a return to the growth of the average curve is expected during the next week”.
For Sebastiani “it should be emphasized that we currently have an average value of about 300 deaths a day, as if we had an earthquake in L’Aquila or Amatrice every day and we absolutely must not get used to this” and notes that “it is important to vaccinate fragile categories as much as possible to directly reduce mortality. It would also be desirable for the under 65s to be vaccinated, 7 days a week, 24 hours a day, to reduce the circulation of the virus, also contributing, indirectly, to reducing mortality ».
Meanwhile, another data comes from physicist of the University of Trento, Roberto Battiston. And it is relative to the Rt contagion index, now at 1.1. The index increased by 18 cents in seven days: a trend compatible with an exponential growth: this is what emerges from the calculations of the physicist Roberto Battiston, of the University of Trento, based on data from the Civil Protection but with results similar to those of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità and the ‘Bruno Kessler’ Foundation which use a flow of more detailed but not publicly available data. “In the last week, things have rapidly deteriorated, first in a dozen provinces and then more extensively, to the point that in about 40 provinces out of 107 in the last three days there is a clear hint of growth in the Rt index above 1 , even in cases that were under unity a week ago, ”says Battiston. “The consistent growth in many provinces is a bad sign: it seems – he notes – that the most contagious variants of the SarsCoV2 virus are starting to dominate the others”.