Elderly people favored by the first vaccinations. Read on a weekly basis, however, the data describe a serious situation. Within a week, for example, cases of infection increased by 29% and admissions to intensive care units increased by 21%
Rome – The numbers of the Covid-19 epidemic in Italy are rising and are worrying: according to some they could be the spies of a third wave and certainly describe a situation that must be followed with great attention. The positive data concerns the elderly over 80, among whom, according to the data of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS), infections are decreasing, probably due to the vaccination campaign.
Meanwhile, the bulletin of the Ministry of Health indicates that in 24 hours the positive cases of SarsCoV2 were 18,916: a decrease compared to the 20,499 of the previous day but still a high number; admissions to intensive care units slightly increased by 1%, for a total of 2,216, with 163 new entries; the hospitalized with symptoms are a total of 18,372, 80 more in 24 hours. There were 280 deaths, compared to 253 the previous day, for a total of 97,507. The new cases were identified thanks to 323,047 tests, including molecular and rapid antigenic, a number slightly less than the 325,404 of the previous day. The positivity rate calculated on the basis of the ratio between the total of positive cases on the total of tests is 5.8%, down from 6.3 of 24 hours before; the ratio between the total of cases and molecular tests alone remained unchanged and was equal to 10.5%. Among the regions, Lombardy once again records the greatest increase in cases, with 4,191, followed by Emilia Romagna (2,542), Campania (2,215), Lazio (1,347), Veneto (1,285), Piedmont (1,188), Tuscany ( 1,126) and Puglia (1,123).
Read on a weekly basis, the data describe a serious situation. In the space of a week, for example, cases of infection increased by 29% and admissions to intensive care units increased by 21%: “An important increase as cases had stabilized in the previous five weeks”, second the analysis of the physicist Giorgio Sestili.
Calculations of the Rt contagion index more up-to-date than those of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, which indicate 0.99 and which are based on data from two weeks ago, also result in a value of 1.2 at national level. “These are worrying increases – observes Sestili – and there are all the elements to think that the recovery of the infections has begun and that it can go on for weeks. The question is: to what extent will they increase? any action taken today will not be effective for 15 or 20 days“.
The trend of the epidemic in Italy also requires attention to physicist Enzo Marinari, of the Sapienza University of Rome, “It is not a simple situation, which can change at any moment. For some time the number of the new positives was constant, but now it is increasing, as are admissions to intensive care“. Many of these increases, he notes, could be linked to the new variants of the SarsCoV2 virus and it is” like being in the initial state of the epidemic because each variant is a new disease that is emerging and that, if it grows exponentially, over 15 days can become dominant. “For this reason, he continues,”we are in a situation that is very important to keep under control and in which too strong openings are out of the question“.
For Marinari it would be “important to try to return to tracing: it would be easier to get a realistic picture of the epidemic”. For sure, he concludes, “the trend has been reversed. We do not see catastrophes, but there are signs that need attention. The storm of the second wave is not over yet, but it is possible that we are observing the signs of an ascent “.